Nithya Raman has surged into a lead over incumbent Mayor Karen Bass in the race to lead Los Angeles, with ballot counting continuing to favor the challenger, according to The Guardian. As of November 4, 2026, Raman held 51.67 percent of the vote compared to Bass’s 48.33 percent, leaving the city’s political establishment facing a potential historic shift. If the lead holds, Raman would become the first candidate to defeat an incumbent Los Angeles mayor in 21 years.
The Shift in Vote Counts
The race for mayor remains too close to declare a winner, though the trend in the tally has consistently favored Raman. During the early hours of Wednesday, the advantage shifted as Raman moved ahead of Bass by a margin of less than half a percentage point. Officials reported that 132,507 additional ballots were processed between Election Night and Wednesday, with approximately 842,000 ballots still awaiting processing, including 800,000 mail-in ballots. Voter turnout for the November election was projected to reach 38.58 percent.
…and Nithya Raman endorsed Karen Bass! https://t.co/KajDMaKUvB pic.twitter.com/hf3YwF4yrB
Analysts noted that the current data suggests a unidirectional path for Raman; as one observer noted, there is an expectation that once Raman begins gaining votes, she will continue to gain them, with no expected seesaw in the results. Data from Political Data Inc. confirms that younger voters, ages 18 to 34, represented a larger share of returned ballots in this election—21.9 percent—compared to 18.4 percent in 2022.
Generational and Ideological Divides
The contest has highlighted a deep divide in Los Angeles politics. A 45-year-old urban planner and former nonprofit executive, Raman made history in 2020 by becoming the first candidate supported by the Democratic Socialists of America to win a seat on the City Council. Her supporters frame her candidacy as an extension of a movement fed up with the political establishment, seeking a government that is more responsive and a city that is more affordable.
Conversely, Bass, 73, campaigned on her record as mayor, arguing she has made enough progress to merit another term. Despite having the endorsement of all 14 of her colleagues on the City Council, Bass faced scrutiny over homelessness, public safety, and the city’s general direction.
Raman Faces Criticism over Police Funding and Policy Positions
Public safety has been a central point of contention. Raman, a previous advocate for defundment who posted defund the police
on social media in 2020, split voters after promising to fire LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell for sharing information with ICE. She also opposed the mayor’s 2023 police contract, labeling it too expensive. Jamie McBride, a leader of the Los Angeles police officers’ union, expressed severe concern regarding a potential Raman victory, stating, She won’t have to defund the police; police officers will just leave the department.
The union poured over $5 million into efforts to oppose Raman. Meanwhile, Bass has defended her administration’s record, including the “Inside Safe” homelessness program, which has cost the city over $300 million to house 6,000 Angelenos. Critics have pointed to data suggesting that 40 percent of those housed through the program returned to the streets. Raman has also faced internal friction; the Democratic Socialists of America considered rescinding their endorsement over her refusal to explicitly embrace the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement against Israel. During a September forum, Raman defended BDS as a legitimate form of protest,
drawing massive groans from the audience.
The Path to Certification
While the outcome remains officially unresolved, supporters at Raman’s election night event at the Greek Theatre expressed confidence in the trajectory of the results. Raman herself remained cautious, telling the crowd, I’m hopeful. I’m very hopeful.
As the city prepares for the 2028 Summer Olympics, the result of this race will determine if the nation’s second-most populous city continues under the leadership of the incumbent or shifts toward a more progressive, socialist-backed administration.