Dublin and London shared deep concerns in early 2005 that the Provisional IRA remained a potent force, even as Sinn Féin participated in power-sharing talks, with one British official fearing the “top man” behind the £26.5 million Northern Bank heist would evade capture.
IRA Fears Resurface as Blair Aide Predicts Top Robber Will Walk Free
Newly released documents reveal anxieties over the Provisional IRA’s continued activity and the potential derailment of the Northern Ireland peace process following the audacious 2004 bank robbery.
- In a January 5, 2005 meeting, Tony Blair’s chief of staff, Jonathan Powell, indicated London believed the IRA was responsible for the Northern Bank robbery.
- Powell expressed concern that the key figure behind the heist, believed to be linked to Sinn Féin leadership, would avoid arrest.
- Irish officials shared the anxiety, noting the incongruity of the robbery occurring during power-sharing negotiations.
- Files also revealed doubts within the British Department of Justice about the IRA’s supposed decommissioning.
- Concerns were raised about potential discrimination against Irish citizens under proposed British national ID cards.
What was the significance of the Northern Bank robbery? The December 2004 raid on the Northern Bank in Belfast, netting over £26.5 million, was one of the largest in UK history. Its fallout temporarily led to direct rule in Northern Ireland and raised serious doubts about the future of the peace process.
According to files released by the National Archives of Ireland, Jonathan Powell told Irish officials that London was “pretty certain it was the IRA” who carried out the heist. He further stated that the operation was likely orchestrated by individuals “very close to the Sinn Féin leadership”—a claim Sinn Féin rejected at the time. Despite hopes for arrests by the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI), Powell “feared the ‘top man’ involved would be clever enough to avoid being arrested,” according to meeting notes from Downing Street on January 5, 2005.
Michael Collins, an Irish civil servant at the Department of Foreign Affairs, responded by stating Dublin “shared the deep anxiety about the bank robbery” and found it “almost incomprehensible” that such planning could occur while Sinn Féin was engaged in power-sharing discussions with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). Collins added that, from Dublin’s perspective, “the IRA remains a unified organisation; the Northern Bank was not a solo run.”
Separate documents (2025/120/37 and 2025/120/34) from the same period show that officials within the British Department of Justice privately questioned whether the Provisional IRA was genuinely “winding down.” A January 2005 assessment indicated “no signs the PIRA [is] winding down its capacity,” noting continued recruitment, intelligence gathering, and “relatively low-level training.”
The assessment further detailed ongoing IRA activities, including “significant amounts of smuggling,” “paramilitary shootings and assaults” (though at a reduced rate and without fatalities), and continued control over republican areas. There was also “no evidence of PIRA agreeing that those it has exiled should be free to return to Northern Ireland,” and no “fundamental change in its capacity or its maintenance of a state of preparedness.”
The files document a series of violent incidents in the preceding months, including one murder and several suspected “punishment beatings” targeting young men—one victim being just 19 years old—who suffered injuries such as gunshot wounds to the ankles and hands, or broken jaws.
Meanwhile, speaking points prepared for then-Taoiseach Bertie Ahern before a meeting with Sinn Féin leaders revealed his frustration. Ahern stated, “I would be less than honest if I didn’t say that I feel let down and the government feel let down by what has happened in the last few weeks…” He affirmed his belief that the PSNI’s attribution of the robbery to the PIRA was credible, stating, “The government doesn’t believe for one moment the claims that Hugh Orde is blaming the PIRA because he has some political agenda.” Ahern also noted he wouldn’t publicly disclose the full extent of his knowledge regarding the robbery.
Ahern also reportedly said, “I’m not trying to criminalise the IRA. The fact that the IRA continue to commit crime is what criminalises them.”
Other released documents (2025/125/161) highlighted Irish concerns that proposed British national ID cards could discriminate against Irish citizens in Northern Ireland and the UK. The plan, recently revived by British Prime Minister Kier Starmer, was initially intended to address terrorism, illegal migration, and identity fraud, but faced opposition due to social justice concerns about data usage.
The files also contain anecdotes such as the reluctance of US officials to have President Bill Clinton shake hands with Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams at a 1995 event at Queen’s University Belfast, resulting in the handshake taking place on the Falls Road (2025/115/827). A diplomatic incident involving musician Christy Moore, who was detained and questioned while traveling by boat between Ireland and England (2025/127/1), was also documented.
In a separate matter, officials expressed a “somewhat panicked response” to a 1995 request from NASA to designate Shannon Airport as an emergency landing zone for the space shuttle, noting the shuttle “sometimes carried a pay-load” and had limited time to decide between Shannon and Zaragoza, Spain (2025/124/266).
Finally, the files include a genealogist’s assertion that claims of US President Bill Clinton’s Irish ancestry were “a fantasy” (2025/166/11; 2025/124/3; 2025/124/5; 2025/124/391), and a suggestion that Princess Diana might attempt to overshadow Prince Charles’s visit to Ireland with a visit of her own (2025/124/160).
