New York Snowfall Forecast 2025-2026: When Will the First Snowfall Arrive?
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New Yorkers are already looking to the skies, anticipating the first snowfall of the season as fall 2025 is shaping up to be unusually cold and dry across much of the state. While Upstate New York is bracing for an early dusting, residents of New York City and long island may have to wait longer for a notable accumulation of snow.
A Tale of Two Snowfalls: Upstate vs. Downstate
According to recent climate forecasts and analyses from the Northeast Regional Climate Center, the first measurable snowfall in northern areas, or Upstate New York, typically arrives during the first week of November. specifically, cities like Syracuse are predicted to see snowfall around November 5. Though, New York City (NYC) and the Atlantic corridor are expected to experience drier and colder conditions, suggesting a delayed start to the winter wonderland.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac projects the possibility of light snowfall around Thanksgiving (late November), but a “significant” snowfall in the Big Apple is anticipated later in the season. Estimates currently place the first significant snowfall in new York city around the first or second half of December, with Central Park potentially seeing accumulating snow around December 13.
Projected Snowfall Dates by Region
Experts, analyzing revised wxcharts forecasts as of late October 2025, have provided more granular predictions for specific areas:
- JFK Airport (queens): Around December 9.
- LaGuardia Airport (Queens): December 10.
- long Island: December 11.
- Central Park: December 13.
- New York City: December 14.
for November, the focus shifts northward. Episodes of snow are predicted between November 3 and 6 in the interior and northern parts of the state – including Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse. New York City, however, is expected to see only a mix of light snow and rain, without significant accumulation.
November & December 2025: A Closer Look
The November 2025 forecast indicates temperatures between 5°C and 10°C,with only one day of snow and an accumulation of approximately 1.8 cm, primarily at the end of the month. This snowfall is expected to be very light.
December 2025 promises more frequent and intense snowfall, with up to seven days of snow and average temperatures between 1°C and 5°C. Despite this,the total snowfall forecast for the season in New York City is projected to be 43 to 53 cm,which is lower than the historical average.
Regional Variations in Snow Accumulation
The amount of snow expected varies dramatically across New York State. While Western New York and the New York City metropolitan area are predicted to experience a milder and below-average snowfall, central and northern regions will face colder conditions.
Historically,average snowfall ranges from 25 to 31 inches in the NYC area,but can reach 95 to 127 inches in the west and center of the state. Upstate New York,particularly areas north and west of Albany – including Buffalo,Syracuse,Binghamton,and the Hudson Valley – are expected to receive the most significant snow coverage in November.buffalo, such as, could accumulate over 90 cm throughout the season.
In contrast, New York City and Long Island have a very low probability of accumulated snow in November, with an expected accumulation of only around 1.8 cm. The atmosphere will be cold but generally dry and sunny, with the possibility of scattered flakes but no persistent snow cover.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts a colder than normal winter with below-average snowfall in the Southern Tier,while northern and central cities like Syracuse,which recorded 115.4 inches last year, are expected to continue to see the largest accumulations, alongside near-normal rainfall.
Despite the overall forecast for a milder winter,New Yorkers should remain prepared for periods of significant snow accumulation,particularly in the central and northern parts of the state,throughout the 2025-2026 season.
