ocean damage Costs to Hit $1.66 Trillion Annually by 2100
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A new study reveals the staggering economic toll of climate change on our oceans, nearly doubling previous estimates of overall climate-related damages.
- By 2100, annual damages to traditional markets from ocean-related climate impacts are projected to reach $1.66 trillion.
- The study, initiated in 2021, incorporates the economic value of even untouched ocean ecosystems.
- island economies, heavily reliant on seafood, will experience disproportionately severe financial and health consequences.
- Researchers emphasize the need for increased investment in ocean adaptation and resilience projects.
The economic consequences of a warming ocean are far more dire than previously understood. A comprehensive new assessment predicts that climate change will inflict $1.66 trillion in annual damages to traditional markets alone by the year 2100. This figure underscores the urgent need to account for the full value of ocean ecosystems when evaluating the social cost of carbon emissions.
Quantifying the Unquantifiable
The research, which commenced in 2021, brought together a diverse team of scientists-fisheries experts, coral reef researchers, biologists, and climate economists-to assess the downstream costs of climate change across four critical sectors: corals, mangroves, fisheries, and seaports. The team measured both direct economic losses, such as declines in fisheries and marine trade, and reductions in ocean-based recreational activities.
But the study went further, attempting to place a monetary value on what economists term “non-use values.” “Something has value because it makes the world feel more livable, meaningful, or worth protecting, even if we never directly use it,” explained Bastien-olvera. He highlighted the inherent worth of ecosystem enjoyment and the cultural losses stemming from climate change. “Most people will never visit a coral reef during a full-moon spawning event,or see a deep-sea jellyfish glowing in total darkness. But many still care deeply that these things exist.”
Disproportionate Impacts and a Call for Action
Island economies, particularly those with high dependence on seafood for nutrition, are poised to bear a disproportionate share of the financial and health burdens associated with ocean warming and acidification.”The countries that have the most responsibility for causing climate change and the most capacity to fix it are not generally the same countries that will experience the largest or most near-term damages,” noted Kate Ricke, a climate professor at UCSD’s School of Global Policy and Strategy.The inclusion of ocean data in social cost of carbon assessments reveals heightened risks of morbidity and mortality in low-income countries facing increased nutritional deficiencies.
Despite the scale of the findings, Bastien-Olvera and Ricke remain optimistic that this data will serve as a catalyst for international decision-making. “I hope that the high value of ‘blueSCC’ can motivate further investment in adaptation and resilience for ocean systems,” Ricke said, referencing the ocean-based social cost of carbon and the potential for projects focused on coral reef and mangrove restoration.
Bastien-Olvera believes that centering the framework on oceans also acknowledges the long-standing conservation efforts of coastal communities, ocean scientists, and Indigenous peoples. “For a long time, climate economics treated the ocean values as if it were worth zero,” he stated. “this is a first step toward finally acknowledging how wrong that was.”
