In a result that has sent shockwaves through the corridors of power in Canberra, One Nation has secured a historic victory in the Farrer by-election, claiming a seat that had been a Coalition stronghold for nearly eight decades. The win marks the first time the party has ever won a seat in the federal House of Representatives through a standard electoral contest.
The seat was called for One Nation candidate David Farley just after 8:00 p.m. By ABC election analyst Casey Briggs. With more than 40 per cent of the primary vote, Mr. Farley was predicted to win the seat with a margin of approximately nine per cent after the distribution of preferences, effectively ending the Liberal and National parties’ long-standing grip on the region.
For the Coalition, the loss is more than a mere electoral setback; This proves the loss of a “jewel in the crown.” Since its creation in 1949, Farrer has been held without exception by the Liberal or National parties, most recently by former Liberal leader Sussan Ley for the past 25 years. The scale of the defeat suggests a profound disillusionment among regional voters, turning a once-safe bastion into a site of political upheaval.
A Fortress Fallen: The Collapse of the Coalition Vote
The magnitude of the shift becomes clear when compared to the 2025 federal election. Just one year ago, the Liberal Party commanded over 43 per cent of the first-preference vote in Farrer. In this by-election, however, the Coalition parties were relegated to the status of also-rans. Early counts showed Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski at 11.47 per cent and National candidate Brad Robertson at 9.59 per cent.
The result has forced a moment of brutal introspection within the Liberal Party. Leader Angus Taylor admitted the party must “take our medicine” and be honest with the electorate. Addressing supporters, Mr. Taylor conceded that the party had for too long been “a party of convenience, not of conviction.” He specifically pointed to mass migration—citing 1.4 million arrivals in three and a half years—as a policy failure that resonated poorly with voters.
Former Liberal leader Sussan Ley, whose resignation triggered the by-election, expressed “immense disappointment,” urging the party leadership to accept the result with humility. Ms. Ley recalled a warning from February that the party needed to “change or die,” noting that the Farrer result proves that statement “far truer today than it ever was then.”
The swing was further exacerbated by a strategic preference decision. Both Coalition candidates preferred One Nation over independent Michelle Milthorpe. While Ms. Milthorpe secured a strong 25 per cent of the primary vote, the Coalition’s “how-to-vote” cards effectively blocked her path to victory, funneling preferences toward Mr. Farley.
One Nation’s New Foothold in the Lower House
For David Farley, the victory is the culmination of a campaign focused on “courage and tenacity.” A specialist in agriculture and agribusiness, Mr. Farley argued that his professional background allowed him to understand the specific needs of the Farrer electorate.
“People just want change, it’s as simple as that,” Mr. Farley said. “We’re like a mason with a chisel and a hammer, and we’re re-carving the letters into the Australian democracy.”
While Barnaby Joyce currently represents One Nation in the lower house, his presence was the result of a defection from the Nationals. Mr. Farley’s win represents a genuine electoral breakthrough for the party. One Nation leader Pauline Hanson, addressing a jubilant crowd, signaled that Farrer is only the beginning, telling supporters, “we’re coming after those other seats.”
The internal rivalry within the conservative space was highlighted by Mr. Joyce, who mocked the Liberals’ dismal 11 per cent showing, comparing their performance to that of the “Marijuana Party” and suggesting the Australian people are ready to “completely change the batting order.”
Regional Grievances and Campaign Friction
The campaign was fought largely on the battleground of resource management and national identity. Water rights in the Murray-Darling Basin emerged as the dominant local issue. All four major contenders—the Liberal, National, One Nation, and Independent candidates—aligned in their opposition to further water buybacks, calling instead for a deeper investigation into the basin’s management.
The race was not without controversy. The Federal Court was forced to intervene when unauthorized signage appeared at the Orana Community Centre in Springdale Heights. The posters, which mimicked the branding of the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC), detailed political donations to Ms. Milthorpe from Climate 200. The AEC successfully sought an injunction to remove the signs, stating they had the potential to misrepresent the source of the information.
The following table illustrates the dramatic shift in voter sentiment between the general election and the by-election:
| Candidate/Party | 2025 General Election (Primary) | By-Election (Primary/Early Count) |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal Party | >43% | 11.47% |
| One Nation | <7% | >40% |
| Independent (Milthorpe) | 20% | ~25% |
| Labor Party | 15% | Not Specified |
The Path Forward
Mr. Farley now faces the challenge of translating a populist victory into legislative results. As a crossbencher in a parliament led by the Albanese government, he will need to navigate a complex relationship with the Labor leadership to deliver on his campaign pledges regarding agriculture and immigration.
Meanwhile, the National Party appears ready to pivot. Deputy leader Bridget McKenzie indicated an openness to forming a minority government with One Nation in the future, stating she would work with anyone committed to removing Anthony Albanese from the Lodge.
The final official tally and formal declaration of the poll will be processed by the AEC in the coming days, which will confirm the exact margin of Mr. Farley’s victory. Once sworn in, the new member for Farrer will take his seat in the House of Representatives for the next sitting day.
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