Oscar’s Supporting Races: A Season of Unpredictability and Potential Upsets
The 98th Academy Awards are shaping up to be a nail-biter, but not in the categories everyone expects. This awards season, it’s not Best Picture or Lead Actor dominating the conversation – the supporting actor and actress races are proving to be the most fiercely contested and unpredictable battles.
Supporting Actress: A Veteran’s Challenge
Amy Madigan, a 75-year-old acting veteran, has garnered significant critical acclaim for her chilling performance in the psychological horror film “Weapons.” Despite dominating critics’ prizes, Madigan faces a historically challenging scenario: her film received no other Oscar nominations. Over the past 25 years, only five actors have secured a win as their film’s sole nominee. The last supporting actress to do so was Penélope Cruz for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” in 2008, and those winners benefited from compelling external narratives – overdue recognition, biopic subject matter, or unique category placements. Madigan, receiving her second Oscar nomination 40 years after her first for “Twice in a Lifetime,” lacks such advantages.
Her competition is formidable. Teyana Taylor’s Golden Globe win for “One Battle After Another” positions her as the only nominee to have secured all four major televised precursors. Meanwhile, Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”) and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (“Sentimental Value”) are gaining momentum from both critics’ circles and the British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA). The upcoming Actor Awards (formerly SAG), airing March 1, will be a crucial indicator of who leads heading into final voting. Madigan, Taylor, and Mosaku are all nominated, and the winner will have the last televised opportunity to sway Academy members before ballots are cast.
Supporting Actor: A Wide-Open Contest
The supporting actor race is even more chaotic, with no clear frontrunner, no consistent precursor trends, and a complete lack of consensus.
Stellan Skarsgård initially appeared unbeatable after winning the Golden Globe for “Sentimental Value.” However, his omission from the SAG nominations raised a significant red flag. This, coupled with Jacob Elordi’s Critics Choice Association (CCA) win for “Frankenstein” and Benicio Del Toro receiving double the number of critics’ wins as Skarsgård for “One Battle After Another,” has fractured the race.
Adding to the intrigue is Delroy Lindo, who landed a surprise Oscar bid for his scene-stealing performance in Ryan Coogler’s vampire drama “Sinners,” despite being overlooked by every major precursor. Historically, Oscar upsets are common. Judi Dench won for a mere eight minutes of screen time in “Shakespeare in Love” (1998), and Juliette Binoche upset Lauren Bacall in “The English Patient” (1997). In 1976, Beatrice Straight won for just five minutes in “Network,” a film that ultimately lost Best Picture to “Rocky.”
Only three actors in modern history – Marcia Gay Harden (“Pollock”), Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”), and Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained”) – have won an Oscar without a SAG nomination. Harden is the only one who, like Lindo, was absent from all major precursors.
Can Skarsgård or Lindo actually win? According to one Academy member who spoke with Variety, “In supporting actor, I’ll be honest, I haven’t made up my mind yet. This is one of those that I love almost all of them—well, except for Sean Penn, but that’s more about who he is.” Indeed, Penn – a two-time Oscar winner – remains a contender with the third-most critics’ wins this season.
The path to victory remains unclear. If Elordi wins SAG, his momentum will surge. A SAG and BAFTA win for Del Toro could solidify his chances for a second Oscar after “Traffic” (2001). Skarsgård’s Globe and BAFTA wins could prove decisive. And if “Sinners” wins the SAG ensemble prize, Lindo could deliver a history-making, defining speech.
For the first time in years, the outcome is genuinely uncertain. Final Oscar voting will take place from February 26 to March 5. The 98th Oscars will be held on March 15 and will air on ABC, hosted by Conan O’Brien.
The Full Slate of Nominees
Here’s a complete list of the nominees, and current projected leaders:
- Best Picture: “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian and Ryan Coogler
- Director: Ryan Coogler, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
- Actor: Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Actress: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
- Supporting Actor: Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
- Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan, “Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
- Original Screenplay: “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler
- Adapted Screenplay: “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
- Casting: “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler
- Animated Feature: “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) — Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. Wong
- Production Design: “Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Tamara Deverell; Shane Vieau
- Cinematography: “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Autumn Durald Arkapaw
- Costume Design: “Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Kate Hawley
- Film Editing: “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) — Stephen Mirrione
- Makeup and Hairstyling: “Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey
- Sound: “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) — Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta
- Visual Effects: “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) — Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
- Original Score: “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson
- Original Song: “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) — EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon and Teddy Park
- Documentary Feature: “The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) — Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu and Sam Bisbee
- International Feature: “Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon) — dir. Joachim Trier
- Animated Short: “The Girl Who Cried Pearls” (National Film Board of Canada) — Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
- Documentary Short: “All the Empty Rooms” (Netflix) — Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
- Live Action Short: “Two People Exchanging Saliva” (Canal+/The New Yorker) — Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata
Currently, “Sinners” leads with six projected wins, followed by “Frankenstein” with three. “F1,” “KPop Demon Hunters,” and “Sentimental Value” are each projected to win two awards. Warner Bros. dominates the studio tally with ten projected wins, followed by Netflix with seven, and Apple Original Films and Neon with two each.
For the first time in years, we genuinely don’t know how this story ends.
