Posted Apr 13, 2023, 7:18 PMUpdated on Apr 13, 2023 at 8:53 PM
“Contrary to what the government hopes, the movement is far from over. “The union fight is far from over. Two union leaders – Sophie Binet of the CGT and Laurent Berger of the CFDT – and almost the same words. On the eve of the long-awaited decisions of the Constitutional Council on pension reform and the shared initiative referendum (RIP), the twelfth day of mobilization against the executive’s project was however marked by a further drop in attendance. But the unions are not disarming, their eyes riveted on the opinion polls.
The day was dotted with spectacular actions: invasion of the Parisian headquarters of the luxury giant LVMH (owner of “Echos”), mobilization before the Constitutional Council… In total, there are 380,000 demonstrators according to the police and more than 1.5 million according to the CGT who once again paraded throughout France. Either the weakest mobilization or almost since the beginning of the movement (there were 368,000 demonstrators on Saturday March 11). In Paris, the Ministry of the Interior has identified 42,000 people and the CGT 400,000.
Attendance down again
But if the crowds are now really declining, public support remains very strong: according to an Odoxa-Blackbone Consulting poll for “Le Figaro” two-thirds of French people side with the demonstrators. And if the Constitutional Council validates the text, 61% think that the social movement will have to continue.
The calendar offers the unions a thirteenth ready-made deadline: 1is May which will save the forces until that date, or even make a soft landing. Laurent Berger called for making it “a big popular party against the reform”, although the workers’ day falls on a Monday this year, which risks limiting mobilization.
The “way out” of Article 10
If the Constitutional Council does not block his reform, the Head of State who, after having refused, announced his intention to receive the unions quickly but once the law has been promulgated, will have to be patient. Laurent Berger mentioned a “decency deadline”, Sophie Binet pointed to an “agenda” problem: “We will not go to talk about something else [que le retrait de la réforme des retraites]. »
Even if it is an academic hypothesis, in the event of validation of the main part of the reform, the confederations want to believe in the “way out” of Article 10 of the Constitution which would allow the Head of State to propose to Parliament a new deliberation. “We will first give him the fifteen days of reflection to request a new deliberation or not to apply the law”, declared Frédéric Souillot, the general secretary of Force Ouvrière.
Low Profile Executive Side
On the executive side, the atmosphere this Thursday was rather one of all-out reflection and a low profile. A “posture of humility”, assured the government spokesman, Olivier Véran. After a lunch this Thursday, Emmanuel Macron and Elisabeth Borne will meet again at the Elysee Palace on Friday afternoon with the main ministers and leaders of the majority. Sign, also, of the exceptional nature of the moment, the demonstrations were prohibited until Saturday morning around the Constitutional Council.
No one within the executive has obviously taken the risk of speaking out publicly, but no one really wants to believe in total censorship of the text, which the unions dream of. “We can hope that we are not in [ce] nuclear scenario”, puts a minister. Two other hypotheses are considered: validation with censorship of a few elements, accompanied by a rejection of the RIP or a validation of the RIP.
after choreography
“It’s the complicated variant because with this sword of Damocles, we are going to live with a hindered reform and we with it”, worries a close friend of the head of state. And the same to fear after the decisions of the Elders the radicalization of a “small minority”. “We should not give them more importance than the mobilization we have had in recent months and the opposition expressed consistently in the polls, it is to them that we will have to respond,” he warns.
“The real subject is the message that the president will pass on to the French”, suggests a relative according to whom Emmanuel Macron “does not want to put the reforms on hold” and should speak quickly.