Tropical Cyclone Threat Looms Over Western Australia’s Pilbara Coast
A developing low pressure system currently unleashing torrential rainfall across the Northern Territory poses an increasing threat of becoming a tropical cyclone near the Pilbara coast of Western Australia later this week. Satellite imagery captured on Monday, February 2, 2026, reveals a distinct tropical low spinning over the NT, already responsible for record-breaking precipitation.
Record Rainfall Batters Northern Territory
The system has already delivered significant rainfall totals over the past few days. Bradshaw recorded 154.2 mm during the 24 hours ending at 9 a.m. ACST on Monday, marking its wettest February day in 23 years of record-keeping. Delamere experienced its wettest day in 15 years with 126.6 mm, while Maningrida Airport saw 122.6 mm – also a 15-year high.
[Image: Visible satellite images captured on Monday, February 2, 2026. Source: Weatherzone.]
Westward Track Increases Cyclone Risk
While the low is currently unlikely to intensify into a tropical cyclone while remaining over land, forecast models predict a westward movement over the coming days. The system is expected to move off the Kimberley coast of Western Australia, most likely around Friday. “Once it moves offshore, the low pressure system has a better chance of becoming a tropical cyclone as it draws energy from the warm water to the north of WA,” a senior meteorologist explained.
The Bureau of Meteorology currently assesses a moderate risk of tropical cyclone formation over the weekend as the system tracks westward, north of the Pilbara district. However, modeling from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggests a higher probability. The ECMF data indicates a 60 to 70% chance of a tropical cyclone being located within a 300 km radius of the Pilbara coast between Saturday and Monday.
[Image: Probability that a tropical cyclone will pass within a 300 km radius within a 48-hour window of 8am AWST on February 8, 2026. Source: ECMWF.]
Widespread Flooding and Severe Weather Expected
Regardless of whether the system develops into a full-fledged tropical cyclone, substantial rainfall and flooding are anticipated across a broad area of the Northern Territory and northern Western Australia between now and Friday. The moisture associated with the low will also contribute to daily rain and thunderstorm activity across large portions of northern and eastern Australia this week.
Flood watches have been issued for parts of the Northern Territory, Queensland, and Western Australia’s Kimberley district. Authorities are also preparing to issue severe thunderstorm warnings as storm activity becomes more widespread. Residents are urged to stay informed and monitor conditions closely.
Pilbara Residents Urged to Prepare
Residents of the Pilbara region are specifically advised to have a tropical cyclone plan in place and closely monitor the latest forecasts and warnings. Staying informed is crucial as the situation evolves. Individuals should check the latest warnings in their area for the most up-to-date information throughout the coming week.
