The political survival of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro may depend entirely on the electoral success of the Liberal Party (PL), according to the party’s own national president. In a stark assessment of the stakes involved in the upcoming presidential cycle, Valdemar Costa Neto warned that a failure to secure victory would leave the former leader vulnerable to prolonged incarceration.
Speaking at a Bradesco event in São Paulo on Tuesday (7), Costa Neto explicitly linked the party’s performance at the polls to the legal fate of its most prominent figure. “If we don’t win this election, Bolsonaro will stay imprisoned for another ten years,” Costa Neto stated, framing the electoral contest not merely as a quest for power, but as a necessary shield against judicial repercussions.
The assertion comes at a critical juncture for the Partido Liberal, as it attempts to consolidate a fragmented right-wing base while navigating a complex web of judicial investigations surrounding the former president. While Bolsonaro is not currently serving a prison sentence, he remains the subject of multiple inquiries by the Brazilian judiciary, making Costa Neto’s comments a calculated signal to the party’s rank-and-file about the urgency of the next campaign.
Lessons from 2022: Stubbornness and the Gender Gap
Costa Neto did not mince words when analyzing the PL’s shortcomings during the 2022 presidential race. He attributed the narrow defeat to what he described as the “stubbornness” of Jair Bolsonaro, specifically regarding the composition of the ticket. According to the party leader, the refusal to pivot on the choice of a running mate cost them a critical segment of the electorate.
Costa Neto claimed that Bolsonaro’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic had severely damaged his standing with female voters. To mitigate this, the party president urged the former president to select Tereza Cristina as his vice-presidential candidate to appeal to women. Instead, Costa Neto alleges that Bolsonaro insisted on maintaining a different alignment, specifically mentioning Braga Neto in this context.
“We already lost the last election because we had a great stubbornness from Bolsonaro when he wanted to keep the vice-president, who is Braga Neto,” Costa Neto said. He argued that the failure to integrate a figure like Cristina—who maintains strong ties with the agribusiness sector and a different demographic appeal—was a decisive factor in the 2022 loss.
Managing Internal Friction: The ‘Jealousy’ Factor
Beyond the strategic errors of the past, the PL is currently grappling with internal volatility. Recent public disputes between Eduardo Bolsonaro and Federal Deputy Nikolas Ferreira have highlighted a growing tension within the party’s ideological core. Costa Neto characterized these clashes not as policy disagreements, but as personal conflicts driven by “jealousy.”
“We have to have an understanding; our people fight a lot because of jealousy of one another,” Costa Neto admitted. He emphasized that such internal warfare is counterproductive and could jeopardize their chances in a race he expects to be razor-thin.
To stabilize the party, Costa Neto has initiated a series of diplomatic interventions. He announced plans to dine with Nikolas Ferreira and his team to better understand their operations and align their goals. He is scheduled to travel to Miami on the 19th to meet with Eduardo Bolsonaro in person.
The PL’s Stabilization Roadmap
The party leader is attempting to implement a “clean slate” policy to ensure no votes are wasted due to internal bickering. The following table outlines the immediate steps Costa Neto is taking to unify the party’s leadership:
| Target Action | Primary Objective | Timeline/Location |
|---|---|---|
| Dinner with Nikolas Ferreira | Team integration and conflict resolution | Immediate/Brazil |
| Meeting with Eduardo Bolsonaro | Strategic alignment and dispute settlement | The 19th/Miami |
| Electoral Capacity Review | Eliminating operational inefficiencies | Ongoing |
The Battle Against the Lula Administration
The PL’s strategy is predicated on the belief that the current administration, led by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is vulnerable. Costa Neto believes the upcoming election will be an equilibrium of forces, suggesting that the current government will be forced to overextend its resources to maintain its lead.
“Lula will spend what he doesn’t have now to see if he can remove this difference,” Costa Neto claimed, suggesting a high-spending campaign from the incumbent’s side. For the PL, the goal is to maximize every single vote, recognizing that in a polarized environment, the margin of victory may be determined by a handful of undecided voters.
This high-stakes environment underscores the gravity of Costa Neto’s earlier warning. By linking the party’s victory to Bolsonaro’s freedom, the PL is transforming the electoral process into a legal lifeline, effectively telling its supporters that the ballot box is the only remaining venue capable of altering the former president’s judicial trajectory.
The immediate focus for the party now shifts to the meeting in Miami on the 19th, which will serve as a litmus test for whether the PL can truly move past its internal rivalries and present a unified front for the next election cycle.
This report is based on public statements and political developments. For official updates on electoral deadlines and candidate filings, please refer to the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE).
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