Poland’s “Extremely Low” Indicator: A Regional Worry [OPINION]

Poland’s Population Decline: Fertility Rates Plummet

Births Falling, Deaths Rising: A Demographic Crisis Unfolds

2025-06-14 08:36:00

Time.news Staff.

Poland is facing a demographic crisis, with a declining birth rate and an aging population, leading to a shrinking population since 2012. The Government Population Council is addressing the issue.

• Poland’s natural growth rate has decreased to -4.2.
• The difference between deaths and births has increased to 157,000.
• Births in 2024 were 252,000, about 21,000 fewer than the previous year.
• Low fertility is a consequence of long-term societal changes.

What’s happening with Poland’s population? The country is experiencing a significant decline in births, coupled with a rising number of deaths, creating a demographic challenge that requires immediate attention. The data shows a stark reality: a shrinking population, with numbers decreasing since 2012 (except for a slight increase in 2017).

The Government Population Council is set to release a report addressing these critical issues. This report includes a chapter dedicated to fertility and family life, co-authored by experts like prof. Irena E. Kotowska, prof. Anna Matysiak, and prof. Jolanta Grotowska-Leder.

Poland’s declining birth rate raises serious concerns about the future.

Poles Are Decreasing All the Time

The demographic situation in 2024 reveals a natural growth factor of -4.2, highlighting a concerning trend. The gap between deaths and births has widened to 157,000. Live births in 2024 totaled 252,000, approximately 21,000 fewer than the previous year, and almost 53,000 less than two years prior. Population projections suggest this decrease in births will continue in the coming years.

This low fertility rate is a consequence of trends observed for over 30 years. Poland, like other Central and Eastern European countries, faced political transformation challenges in the 1990s. However, Poland now stands out with an exceptionally low fertility level compared to its regional counterparts. Alongside this, significant shifts are visible in how relationships are formed and dissolved.

Family Dynamics Are Shifting

Changes are occurring in family structures, with a notable rise in non-marital unions. Children are increasingly being raised in these partnerships, including children from previous relationships. The period from 1995-2010 saw an increase in marriage breakdowns, and the number of divorces also rose. These shifts have led to more diverse family structures. The percentage of births outside of marriage is increasing, largely because of the growth of births in informal relationships.

The influence of such relationships is particularly evident among families with children. The proportion of families with children has only slightly decreased between the 2011 and 2021 censuses, from 74.1 percent to 73.4 percent. However, the structure of these families has changed significantly, mainly due to a 14.5 percent decrease in marriages with children and a more than threefold increase in informal relationships with children. While marriages with children still dominate the structure, their share has decreased from 49.7 to 43.9 percent. Informal relationships with children have clearly increased, rising from 1.6 percent to 5.3 percent.

Addressing Poland’s fertility challenges requires a new approach.

The Age of Childbearing Is Changing

Poland is also seeing a shift in the age at which women give birth. Before 1990, women most often had children before the age of 25. In 2022, the peak childbearing age was between 27-31. The average age of women having their first child has also increased.

Demographers indicate that the decline in fertility is a permanent phenomenon, resulting from a reduction in the average number of children a woman has before completing her reproductive years, not just a delay in having children.

Unfortunately, there’s a lack of research based on large, representative samples in Poland to assess changes in attitudes toward family formation and lifestyles, as well as the desires and intentions of people at various life stages.

What Do Polish Women and Poles Want?

Surveys reveal that most Poles desire children, but their intentions raise concerns. Data indicates an increase in those interested in having only one child or remaining childless. Women with higher education express greater procreation intentions than less-educated women. Yet, research in other European countries shows that these women often face the most significant challenges in realizing their plans.

This suggests family policy should address the needs of this group, which is growing and interested in balancing professional work with childcare. Studies also show young women prefer a partner family model, but in Poland, household and care responsibilities mainly fall on them. Other factors limiting positive procreation plans include concerns about socio-political and environmental situations, not just financial ones.

Poland is experiencing shifts in how relationships form and dissolve, alongside a persistent fertility crisis. This necessitates understanding the sources of these changes and adapting social policy accordingly. There’s a lack of individual longitudinal data, both panel and registration, in Poland. This data would help track generations’ reproductive behavior related to decisions about forming and dissolving relationships, along with the labor market situation, material and housing circumstances, health, life aspirations, or the division of duties between partners.

Falling fertility could shrink Poland’s population.

Better Data Is Crucial to Understanding the Fertility Problem

The need for current data is overwhelming for two key reasons. Firstly, current knowledge of the effects of various factors on the direct and indirect costs of raising children and family biographies needs updating. Secondly, given global changes, including rapid technological advancements, the rising threat of climate change, and ongoing labor market transformations, it’s vital to explore new concepts to explain these changes.

This year, Poland will conduct the Generations and Gender Survey, aiming to provide in-depth insights into families’ attitudes towards fertility and family formation. This study will be implemented by the Inter-departmental Studies Center on Families and Generations at the Warsaw School of Economics, with financial support from the Ministry of Science and Higher Education. The goal is to better understand the reasons for these changes and determine actions to counteract the falling birth rate.

Poland’s Population Decline: A Demographic Overview

Poland, a country in Central Europe [[2]] [[3]], is grappling with a meaningful demographic shift.This challenge, stemming from declining birth rates and an aging population, underscores the urgent need for understanding the factors behind it and the potential policy responses.

The Core Issues: Births, Deaths, and a Shrinking Population

Poland’s population is declining. This trend, evident since 2012 (with a slight increase in 2017), is primarily driven by a declining birth rate and an increasing death rate. The natural growth rate has decreased to -4.2. The difference between deaths and births has widened to 157,000.

In 2024, there were 252,000 live births, approximately 21,000 fewer than the previous year. This decline is part of a broader trend. Recent data indicates a decrease in live births, expected to continue in coming years, posing significant implications for Poland’s future.

Why is this happening?

Low fertility rates in Poland are connected to societal shifts. These changes are visible in how relationships are formed and dissolved, which impact family structures. Marriages with children have decreased, while informal relationships with children have increased.

Shifts in family dynamics are visible in the rising number of non-marital unions and the prevalence of children in these partnerships. These evolving family structures contribute to the changing patterns of births and fertility rates.

Factors to Consider

The age at which women give birth is also changing.Before 1990,women commonly had children before age 25. As of 2022, the peak childbearing age has increased to between 27-31 years of age.The average age of women having their first child has also increased.

Moreover, while most Poles desire children, intentions, and realities may differ.Surveys show an increase in the number of people interested in only one child or remaining childless.Women with higher education show greater procreation intentions, but they sometimes find it arduous to have children.

Actionable steps and next steps

Addressing the issue requires a move toward better data.The shift in the fertility crisis demands better data analysis. Poland is launching the Generations and Gender Survey this year for insights into families’ attitudes toward fertility and family formation. this will determine how to counteract the falling birth rate.

Poland’s declining birth rate and growing aging population are creating a demographic crisis. Poland’s Government Population Council is addressing it alongside societal shifts and changing family dynamics.

The impact of this demographic shift necessitates adapting social policy. This requires understanding the changes in family structures, rising ages of childbearing, and shifting desires among Poles to address the root causes and create effective solutions.

Frequently asked Questions

Q: What is Poland’s current population trend?

A: Poland’s population has been declining since 2012, with fewer births and more deaths. The birth rate has decreased, with a widening gap between deaths and births.

Q: what are some key factors contributing to this demographic shift?

A: Changes in family structures such as higher rates of unmarried unions,and shifting ages of women giving birth are impacting fertility rates. These changes, including social and economical challenges, create lower birth rates.

Q: What’s the Government doing about it?

A: The Government Population council is evaluating the demographic issues. They are releasing reports and studies dedicated to fertility and family life