Title: Catalan Independence Leader Emerges as Kingmaker in Spain’s Hung Parliament
Date: July 24, 2023
BARCELONA/MADRID – A political impasse looms over Spain as Sunday’s election ends in a hung parliament, leaving no party or bloc with a clear majority. However, former Catalan regional government head Carles Puigdemont, currently in self-imposed exile in Belgium, unexpectedly emerges as a potential kingmaker in the quest to form a government.
Puigdemont, who played a prominent role in the failed 2017 push for Catalan independence, holds significant influence within his Junts party. His party’s support in a parliamentary vote on forming a government could be pivotal, provided Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez offers concessions on independence.
The far-right Vox party and the centre-right People’s Party (PP) secured the most seats in parliament with a combined total of 169, falling short of the 176 seats needed for a majority. Meanwhile, the ruling Socialists (PSOE) and far-left Sumar won 153 seats but have greater negotiating options with small Basque and Catalan separatist parties, as seen in the 2019 election.
Sanchez may seek the support of the left-wing separatist party Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC), but will likely require the backing of the more hardline Junts as well. In a recent interview, Junts Secretary General Jordi Turull stated that they would use the opportunity created by the election impasse to achieve Catalan independence, emphasizing the importance of amnesty and self-determination.
Puigdemont, stripped of his immunity as a member of the European Parliament, is currently facing extradition as the Spanish authorities have requested his return. Despite previous disagreements, Puigdemont’s recent tweet suggests that Junts is a party that keeps its word.
According to political analyst Joan Esculies, the Catalans are likely to take a tough stance in negotiations, as the election results revealed that reconciliation with Madrid has not worked in their favor. Esculies adds that the independence movement continues to lose popular support.
While the PP won the most seats, their alliance with Vox and hardline stance on separatism makes it challenging for them to gain support from other factions. A Vox official acknowledges that the situation is difficult to resolve.
If neither bloc can secure enough support to form a government, a second election may be called. The seats of Basque parties, such as the moderate nationalist Basque party PNV and the Basque separatist EH Bildu party, are likely to play a crucial role in the formation of a government.
The law does not set a specific deadline for the process, but if no candidate secures a majority within two months, new elections will be held. The prospect of a protracted deadlock led to a fall in Spanish stocks and a dip in government bond prices in early trading.
As Spain faces prolonged negotiations or a potential fresh election, the role of Carles Puigdemont as a key player in determining the country’s future becomes increasingly significant.
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