Will the Partido Socialista (PS) continue to set the tone or will the Partido Social Democrata (PSD) take the helm again after seven years? Since the “Carnation Revolution” almost 48 years ago, the two parties have alternated in power: first the centre-left navigates the country, then the centre-right again.
With the parliamentary elections brought forward to January 30, Prime Minister António Costa (PS) wanted to secure a stable majority, if possible an absolute majority behind him. She was supposed to free his minority cabinet from sporadic compromises with the two left-wing parties represented in parliament, which he did not always keep. With which Costa might have miscalculated.
During the election campaign of the past few weeks, two chairmen of each of the nine parties represented in the legislature met on television. There were 30 “duels” in 14 days, more than ever before in the “land of gentle manners”. As a result, Costa, who repeatedly behaved like a “matador”, not only earned sympathy. PSD boss Rui Rio, who once attended the German school in Porto and speaks fluent German, appeared authoritative and competent (the Costa-Rio duel had more than three million viewers, which corresponds to a third of the total population).
The sentence most quoted on social networks after hundreds of hours of an election campaign, which took place in TV studios due to the pandemic, fell in a dispute between marginal figures, the chairman of the ultra-right, conservative CDS/PP and the party leader of the new right-wing extremist party “Chega” (that’s enough). . It read, “A cavalry roaming in your head will not come up with a single idea.” The saying is passed around in cafés as an anecdote worthy of the quote because it reflects the opinion of many Portuguese people about politics and politicians and may explain why in the previous elections in October 2019 the absolute majority was won by non-voters for the first time. 51.4 percent of those entitled did not go to the polling station at all, and of the 48.6 percent who cast a ballot, another five percent invalidated it by often using swear words on the ballot.
A welcome scandal
It was a budget law for the current year that led from the government crisis to the election (Friday 45/2021). The liberal-conservative President Rebelo de Sousa made the decision without hesitation because the left-wing parties, which tolerate Prime Minister Costa, had obviously been a thorn in his side for a long time. This scenario appears to have been intentional. Costa must have known in advance that both the communists (PCP) and the left bloc (Bloco de Esquerda) would refuse to vote for the budget. If a compromise had been seriously sought, it would have been found. But Costa probably acted in the conviction that the time was right to punish the left-wing parties that have supported him so far and at the same time to benefit from a successful vaccination campaign. In addition, the opposition PSD was temporarily in a leadership crisis. The 2019 election results, when the Socialists were nine percent ahead of the PSD, like the polls of the past few years, seemed to prove Costa right. The failure of the budget vote at the end of October was a welcome scandal.
In 2015, António Costa negotiated an agreement with the communists and the Bloco de Esquerda to seize power – an amazing agreement given that the PS and PCP had been bitter enemies and separated by a deep ideological divide since the “Carnation Revolution”. Four years later, his PS became the strongest party capable of forming a minority government in which the communists and left bloc only indirectly participated. At the moment, especially with the expectation of 14 billion euros from the EU Corona aid fund, Costa hopes to be able to govern with a free hand in the next four years after an electoral success. It is conceivable that the polls would not ultimately tip over. Suddenly opposition leader Rui Rio catches up, is at 35 percent and overtakes the PS with its 34 percent. Overall, the right camp is suddenly just ahead. Rio was able to prevent a coup attempt by the far right wing of the party, oriented the PSD, which in the 1970s still had socialism in its program, clearly to the center and wooed voters tired of Costa and PS.
All other parties must expect single-digit results in terms of percentage. This applies to the communists and the left bloc like the CDS/PP on the right flank of the political spectrum. Like almost everywhere else in Europe, Chega, an openly xenophobic group, is likely to gain. It could become the third strongest force with an increase in the share of the vote from just over one percent to seven percent, as does the right-wing Liberal Initiative (IL), which is speculating on six percent. A Lisbon parking lot attendant, who no longer wants to vote for the communists in this election, but instead gives out a few copper coins in change and, days before the vote, quotes a wisdom that is also widespread in Portugal and which is good for a bon mot: “Everything has to change, so that everything stays as it is.”