Lisbon – Portugal’s exports of military goods have surged by 77% between 2022 and 2025, a trend closely linked to the war in Ukraine, according to data released this week by the Banco de Portugal. While still representing a relatively small fraction – less than 1% – of the nation’s total exports, the increase highlights a growing demand for Portuguese-made weaponry and related equipment, particularly drones.
The Banco de Portugal’s analysis, part of its March bulletin, reveals a significant shift in the country’s export profile. The rise in military exports began rapidly after the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, though quantifying the precise value remains challenging. The central bank acknowledges the difficulty in classifying military goods, as many items have both civilian and military applications. This “dual use” nature complicates accurate accounting and international trade regulations surrounding embargoes and sanctions add further complexity.
Drone Exports Lead the Growth
Among the various categories of military exports, drones have experienced the most dramatic increase. In 2021, Portugal exported virtually no unmanned aerial vehicles. By 2025, drones accounted for 21.3% of all military exports, a substantial jump from 7.5% in 2023 and 18.1% in 2024. This growth is largely driven by increased demand from Ukraine, which received €87.3 million in drones from Portugal last year – a 164.5% increase from the €33 million exported in 2023. Jornal Económico reported earlier this month that these shipments to Kyiv surpassed Portugal’s total sales to Russia for the first time.
The Banco de Portugal categorizes military products into five main groups. Firearms and their components still represent the largest share, accounting for 46.3% of the total. Personal protective equipment follows, making up approximately 29.8%. Other categories include armored vehicles and ships, and ammunition, though these represent a smaller portion of the overall exports. The bank also notes that the classification excludes items with potential military use, such as textiles and footwear that could be used for military uniforms.
US Remains Key Destination, Ukraine’s Share Increasing
The United States remains the primary destination for Portuguese military exports, receiving 40.5% of the total between 2021 and 2025. Belgium and France are also significant importers, each accounting for around 14% of the exports during the same period, followed by Spain at 6.8%. While Ukraine currently represents 5.1% of Portugal’s military exports over the four-year period, its share has risen to nearly 12% in 2025 alone.
The number of companies exporting these materials has also increased in recent years, reversing a decline observed between 2015 and 2016. Approximately one-third of these exporters have more than 10% foreign capital ownership. The Banco de Portugal notes that the majority – over 90% – have established production lines and consistent export destinations, but there’s been a growing trend towards sales to new markets and of new products since the start of the war in Ukraine.
Challenges in Classification and Regulation
The Banco de Portugal emphasizes the difficulties in accurately assessing the value of military exports due to the dual-use nature of many products and the complex web of international regulations. These regulations, related to embargoes and sanctions, often require authorization from national authorities. Irregular ordering patterns, particularly on the import side, also contribute to the challenges in data collection. The bank states that while these products are not yet dominant in the export portfolios of most Portuguese companies, they have gained importance in the total value of exports in recent periods.
The growth in military exports comes as global geopolitical tensions remain high, and demand for defense equipment continues to rise. The Banco de Portugal will continue to monitor these trends and provide further analysis in future economic bulletins. The next statistical press release regarding securities is scheduled for February 2026, according to the Banco de Portugal’s press release schedule.
Readers affected by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine can uncover support and resources through organizations like the International Committee of the Red Cross and UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency.
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