New Models Predict Future Energy Demand, Offering Path to Sustainable Cities
A new approach to energy demand modeling, developed by researchers at Uppsala University, promises to give municipalities and policymakers the tools they need to make informed decisions about energy efficiency and sustainability. The innovative system utilizes open-access data to simulate energy usage patterns, offering a detailed look at potential impacts from new policies or infrastructure projects.
Lukas Dahlström, a doctoral student at the GRASS graduate school, spearheaded the research, motivated by a desire to apply scientific principles to the sustainability challenges facing his home island of Gotland. “Coming from Gotland makes it extra exciting to study sustainability issues right here,” Dahlström explained. “I may have more insight into the situation on Gotland, and perhaps I care a little more about the island’s future.”
The core of the project lies in estimating and simulating energy demand at a large geographical scale. This allows for a more accurate understanding of how energy is consumed and, crucially, how that consumption can be altered. According to the research, heating in buildings represents the single largest component of energy use, presenting a significant opportunity for reduction.
Dahlström’s methodology relies exclusively on publicly available data – including maps, laser scans, and energy performance certificates – and is designed to be adaptable to diverse regions. However, processing such vast datasets presents considerable hurdles. “You really have to go through a tremendous amount of data first,” Dahlström noted. “Often the data is not of high quality to begin with, so you have to write scripts to eliminate inaccuracies.”
Gotland’s unique characteristics – its insular geography and regional autonomy – make it an ideal case study. The island’s clearly defined boundaries simplify data collection and statistical comparisons. “It makes comparisons very easy,” Dahlström stated. “It’s much more difficult in, say, Uppsala, where the boundary of the city is less clearly defined than that of an island.”
The model’s potential applications are far-reaching. Municipalities can leverage the simulations to test the effects of proposed policies or new industrial developments on local energy consumption, analyzing seasonal patterns and identifying potential bottlenecks.
A related sub-project explores the delicate balance between energy efficiency and the preservation of cultural heritage buildings. The simulations demonstrate how energy-saving measures can be implemented while minimizing the risk of damage to historically significant structures. The results highlight how different conservation choices impact future energy needs.
The interdisciplinary nature of the doctoral program at GRASS has also been instrumental in shaping the research. “It’s great to be a group of Ph.D. students working on sustainable development in different ways,” Dahlström said. “There’s a lot of discussion about perspectives and approaches, not just details and programming.”
Looking ahead, the team aims to refine the models further, increasing their realism and predictive accuracy. The ultimate goal is to empower society with the tools necessary to make informed energy and sustainability decisions. “In the best case, we can predict future energy use and choose the measures that will make the biggest difference,” Dahlström concluded.
More information: Building Sustainability in Regional Energy Transition: Large-Scale Energy Demand Modelling Considering Socio-Economic Factors and Heritage Values. uu.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2%3A1995777&dswid=-9569
