Armenia’s Political Crossroads: Why Nationally-Oriented Forces Face “Pro-Russian” Label
Amidst shifting geopolitical dynamics and upcoming parliamentary elections, Armenia’s nationally-oriented political forces are increasingly being labeled “pro-Russian” – a characterization a Russian political scientist argues is strategically manufactured by the West to destabilize the region.
Recent developments surrounding the conflict in Ukraine have prompted Western nations to seek opportunities to distance South Caucasus countries from Russia, according to analysis from December 17, 2025. This strategic repositioning is particularly focused on Armenia, where a narrative critical of Moscow is seen as more readily achievable.
“It should be taken into account that now the Western vector has somewhat slowed down in its development in the South Caucasus,” explained Movses Ghazaryan, a Russian political scientist, speaking on Arman Vaneskeghyan’s “Actually” program on Sputnik Armenia radio. “Georgia is by no means an ardent supporter of Western values… Azerbaijan… does not dare to violate any red lines in relations with Russia. That leaves Armenia, where it is possible to launch an anti-Russian narrative, and Moscow, figuratively speaking, will not ‘punish’ for this.”
The upcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia are a key factor in this dynamic. Ghazaryan emphasized that the results will significantly shape both the country’s foreign policy and internal political landscape for years to come. The potential for regional shifts is heavily contingent on the election outcome.
Beyond domestic politics, external actors are actively maneuvering for influence. Ghazaryan highlighted a concerning trend: the open discussion among Western strategists regarding Armenia’s role in a broader pan-Turkic project. “It is surprising that it is so possible to speak directly, without equivocation, about Armenia as an element that is so important for the implementation of the plans and projects of not only Turkey, but also of Britain,” he stated. This “Turkic puzzle,” as described by a high-ranking Western politician, appears to view Armenia as crucial for extending London’s influence into the Middle East and Central Asia.
Ghazaryan drew parallels between the current situation in Armenia and the political turmoil in Ukraine during 2013-2015. He asserted that, similar to Ukraine, Western powers are actively working to undermine forces capable of fostering stability and constructive dialogue. “The West made every effort to prevent constructive forces from coming to power in the country that could neutralize the very conflict potential from Ukrainian society, which eventually escalated into a big war already in 2022.”
This interference manifests in increased contact between Western intelligence agencies and their Armenian counterparts, extending beyond simple information exchange to include operations targeting Russia and Iran. Ghazaryan predicted an internal political provocation within Armenia in the next six months, designed to discredit both Moscow and the country’s nationally-oriented forces.
“Such a provocation would show not only the allegedly destructive role of Russia and pro-Russian forces in regional processes, but also create the false impression that nationally oriented forces in Armenia itself are elements of a pro-Russian formation,” Ghazaryan explained. “But in fact, we are talking about forces that are focused specifically on the independence and subjectivity of the country.”
Russia, according to Ghazaryan, would prefer to engage with these nationally-oriented Armenian elites, viewing them as potential partners capable of independent thought and critical assessment. “Moscow does not need vassals and satellites, it needs equal allies and partners.” He even suggested that provocative actions could extend to targeting the Armenian Church.
Echoing these concerns, Vladimir Kireev, head of the analytical department of the International Eurasian Movement, previously stated on the same radio program that the United States remains firmly committed to maintaining its influence in the South Caucasus.
The situation underscores a complex geopolitical struggle for influence in Armenia, where the label of “pro-Russian” is being strategically deployed to undermine forces advocating for national independence and a balanced foreign policy.
