Düsseldorf (dpa) – The Corona years 2020 and 2021 were not only a health challenge for many people, but also a financial challenge.
Short-time work, rising energy prices and the rise in the price of a number of consumer goods made it difficult for many households to make ends meet. But there is much to suggest that things will get better in the coming year and that consumers will again have more money – or at least no less – in their wallets.
In 2022, for the first time since the beginning of the corona pandemic, purchasing power will increase significantly again, said Filip Vojtech from the market research company GfK in a study in December. The market researchers assume that the purchasing power of consumers will increase nominally by 4.3 percent in the coming year. Even after subtracting the inflation rate, which according to the forecasts of leading economic research institutes should be 2.5 percent, there would still be some additional purchasing power.
Stagnating wages expected
The economic expert Torsten Schmidt from the RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research in Essen is not quite as optimistic. He assumes that real wages will tend to stagnate in 2022. But even that would be an improvement after the noticeable minus this year.
In fact, some groups can look forward to above-average increases. In 2021, low-wage earners will benefit from the fact that the statutory minimum wage will be raised on January 1 – from the current EUR 9.60 to EUR 9.82 per hour. On July 1st, it is to be increased again by a further 63 cents to 10.45 euros per hour. Together that means an increase of almost 9 percent. It could possibly be more. Because the traffic light parties agreed in their coalition agreement to raise the minimum wage to 12 euros an hour. However, it is still uncertain when this will be implemented.
Apprentices can also look forward to more money. The statutory minimum training allowance in the first year of training increases from 550 euros per month in the 2021 training year to 585 euros in the 2022 training year. The payments increase accordingly in the following years of training.
More pension
The around 21 million pensioners in Germany can also count on more money from July. The only question is: with how much more? Federal Labor Minister Hubertus Heil (SPD) said at the end of November that he expected “pensions in Germany to rise by 4.4 percent from July 2022.” That sounds like a lot, but it is less than forecast last summer – when there was talk of pension increases of 5.2 percent in the west and 5.9 percent in the east.
The background: In the coalition agreement, the traffic light parties agreed to reintroduce the so-called catch-up factor, which curbs the rise in pensions. It is intended to take into account the fact that pensions should actually have been reduced in 2021 because of the effects of the corona pandemic on general wage developments, which is, however, excluded by law.
From January 2022, everyone who is dependent on social assistance, unemployment benefit II and basic security in old age and with reduced earning capacity will also receive – a little – more money. The standard rate for single adults increases by three euros to 449 euros per month. The standard rates for children and young people are also increasing.
Cost factors for heating and refueling
But some things are also likely to become more expensive in the coming year – such as stopping at the gas station and refilling the heating oil tank. The background: The CO2 tax for fossil fuels introduced in January 2021 will rise from 25 to 30 euros per ton at the beginning of the year. And so, according to the consumer advice center North Rhine-Westphalia, gasoline is going up by 1.5 cents per liter, heating oil and diesel by 1.6 cents per liter and natural gas by 0.1 cents per kilowatt hour. The development of crude oil prices, which largely determine the fuel and heating oil costs for consumers, cannot be foreseen.
The situation with electricity is somewhat different. Here the EEG surcharge will decrease from 6.5 cents to 3.72 cents per kilowatt-hour as of January 1st. That is the lowest level in ten years. However, the positive effect on consumer wallets is likely to be largely eaten up by the considerable price increases on the electricity exchange. The bottom line is that the consumer advice center in North Rhine-Westphalia is expecting “stable electricity prices” for the coming year.
Expensive glow sticks
It will also become more expensive for smokers to reach for a cigarette: the tobacco tax for a pack of 20 cigarettes will rise by an average of 10 cents in 2022. Manufacturers are likely to pass the higher taxes on to end customers. From July 1st, substances for e-cigarettes will also be subject to tobacco taxation for the first time. For a 10-milliliter liquid, which currently costs roughly 5 euros, tax should be 1.60 euros more in 2022, and this value should rise to 3.20 euros by 2026. Tobacco for water pipes will also be taxed significantly higher in the future.
Another price increase should not tear any big holes in most wallets: Deutsche Post will increase its prices on January 1st. The postcard then costs 70 cents instead of 60 cents, the standard letter 85 cents instead of 80 cents. And some other formats are also becoming more expensive.
Small consolation: Overall, the inflation rate is expected to drop noticeably again in 2022. In its latest economic report, the RWI is “only” assuming a price increase of 2.6 percent for 2022 – after an inflation rate of 3.2 percent this year.