Vladimir Putin is reportedly unlikely to accept U.S. President Donald Trump’s ultimatum to end the war in Ukraine, fueled by confidence in Russia‘s military strength.
Key Takeaways:
- Putin believes Russia will win the war and is skeptical of new U.S. sanctions’ impact.
- His primary goal is to fully seize four Ukrainian regions before negotiating peace.
- Despite wanting better relations with the West, Putin prioritizes military objectives.
- Negotiations have been minimal, focused mainly on humanitarian issues.
What’s driving Putin’s stance on ending the Ukraine war?
Sources close to the Kremlin suggest Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to continuing military operations in Ukraine, dismissing U.S. President Donald Trump’s ultimatum for progress. Putin’s conviction stems from a deep-seated belief in Russia’s military victory and skepticism that further U.S. sanctions will significantly alter the war’s trajectory, especially after years of economic measures.
While Putin understands that refusing Trump’s demands could jeopardize improving relations with Washington and the West, his military ambitions appear to hold greater sway. One source indicated Putin’s objective is to fully annex the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, territories Russia claims as its own, before seeking a peace agreement.
Recent negotiation attempts, including three meetings in May between Russian and Ukrainian representatives, were viewed by Moscow as a means to demonstrate to Trump that Putin was not entirely opposed to peace. However, these talks reportedly lacked substantive progress beyond discussing humanitarian exchanges.
“Russia claims a serious commitment to achieving long-term peace through negotiations, but the process is complex due to starkly differing positions,” one source noted, recalling Putin’s recent positive remarks about the talks.
Adding another layer to the situation, one insider mentioned Putin’s personal concern over the deteriorating relationship with the United States. “Putin still hopes Russia can mend ties with America and resume trade with the West, and he is worried about Trump’s irritation,” the unnamed interlocutor shared.
However, with Russian forces advancing on the ground and Ukraine facing intense military pressure, Putin does not believe it’s the opportune moment to halt hostilities. The source added that neither the Russian populace nor the military would understand a cessation of operations now.
The Russian leader values his relationship with Trump and wishes not to antagonize him. Yet, as a second Russian source put it, “His main priority is that Putin cannot afford to stop the war simply because Trump wants him to.”
Another source familiar with the Kremlin’s thinking corroborated Russia’s aim to secure all four Ukrainian regions, seeing no strategic benefit in stopping the war during the ongoing summer offensive.
Background:
- Previously, Trump had stated the U.S. would begin imposing tariffs and other measures against Russia within 10 days if Moscow didn’t show progress in ending the Ukraine war.
- Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, responded by calling Trump’s approach a “game of ultimatums with Russia,” warning that each ultimatum was a threat and a step towards war, not just between Russia and Ukraine but with America itself.
- On August 4, Trump announced that his special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, would likely visit Russia on Wednesday or Thursday.
