2024-05-25 11:13:58
We want to remind you that, in response to specialists, the dying of Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi may have a big impression on the political dynamics and regime within the nation, particularly within the context of the succession of the supreme chief. The helicopter carrying Raisi and different senior Iranian officers crashed on Might 19 close to the town of Julfa, on Iran’s border with Azerbaijan. On Monday morning, native media reported an emergency authorities assembly in Tehran, at which the president’s dying was formally confirmed.
In line with a report by the American Institute for the Research of Conflict (ISW), Raisi’s dying may considerably have an effect on the succession course of for the nation’s supreme chief. Analysts notice that Ibrahim Raisi was one of many principal candidates for this put up, thought of as a potential successor to Ali Khamenei. In 2019, Khamenei appointed Raisi to go the judiciary after which supported him within the 2021 presidential elections.
The ISW report highlights that the subsequent few days shall be important in figuring out each near- and long-term political dynamics in Iran. The problem of succession to the supreme chief is more likely to be a key consider these adjustments. Nevertheless, regardless of the importance of Raisi’s dying, the present course of the Iranian regime, targeted on a tricky and conservative home coverage, in addition to an aggressive regional coverage, is more likely to stay unchanged.
Consultants recommend that Raisi’s dying will result in political and administrative adjustments throughout the nation, because the authorities shall be pressured to search for a brand new candidate for the put up of supreme chief. This might trigger inside tensions among the many political elite, which in flip will have an effect on the soundness of the Iranian regime.
Nevertheless, Iran will proceed to take care of its hardline political course, regardless of the lack of a key determine akin to Raisi. Conservative forces within the nation that assist the present coverage will preserve their positions and can try to protect the present order.