“Rates and loans will make it cheaper to buy a new home than to pay the rent”

2024-02-08 05:02:26

One of the main challenges for the construction sector in 2024 will be recovery. An inflation that completes 10 months of falling, together with the drop in interest rates by the Bank of the Republic, is expected to improve the figures for the acquisition of new housing.

Luis Aurelio Díaz, president of Grupo Oikos, believes that, if the drop in the CPI and the issuer’s rates continue, this year it could be cheaper to buy new housing, instead of paying rent.

How much can interest rates fall on loans to purchase a home?

Today banks are lending for 30 years, something they did not do before because they lent for 12 or 15 years, so When a bank today is lending for that period, it makes the fee very competitive, below a lease.

We are already beginning to see a significant drop in rates, which we hope will consolidate towards the second half of the year, which will mean that the combination of very competitive rates and the issue of 30-year loans will actually generate installments that They can be at least 20% or 30% below what a rental is worth.

What will be the drop in rates?

I believe that the Bank of the Republic at the end of the year will set the rate around 10% or 9.8%which means that there are obviously some very competitive types on the market.

In figures, how much or what would this recovery of the construction sector be like?

I believe that this next year will be better than 2023 and we hope that they will close figures of over 150,000 units.

This year there will be a greater dynamic in the opening of new projects, surely not what we saw two or three years ago, but definitely, as the inventory takes flight and is leaving, it will cause builders to slowly bring out new ones. projects and take on a dynamic. That dynamic will really be significantly resumed around 2025, but 2024 will begin to take on a launch dynamic again.

What happened to used housing and what impacts did it have with the increases in prices in 2023? How will things go in the future?

Normally when there is high inflation, the first ones to feel the inflation are the builders, because they buy new materials; In second-hand housing, as it is already built, it takes more or less a year and a half to two years for the second-hand home to realize the inflationary problem that the new home has.

Once you realize, prices obviously increase because new housing is much more expensive, but, There is a period of almost three years where second-hand housing is very cheap compared to what it would cost to build it.

What are you proposing for those who could not access or do not have Mi Casa Ya?

Well, that does depend on which segment you are attacking. There is definitely a segment that does require the recurring subsidy, but there is a very large segment that With the compensation fund subsidy you can make financial closure, especially thinking about 30-year loans and the rates that are going down.

So I believe that a large part of the market and at least in our case, we are going to attend to is that segment of subsidies, only the compensation fund, however, we hope that the Government will make a great effort for the recurring subsidy of Mi Casa Already, it manages to reach lower segments.

Are you going to look for those who decided not to continue with the purchase of a new home?

Without a doubt and not only is there a plan; I believe that the housing deficit in Colombia is very high, and in the end everyone wants to have their own home, the issue is at what price? At what cost? At what rates? and in what time?, but, Very surely, the more we convince them, people will realize that there is no better deal than buying a home, instead of renting.