Influenza cases in Canada are currently higher than at any point since the COVID-19 pandemic began, according to the Public Health Agency. But is this a sign of things to come, or have we already seen the worst of it this winter?
Flu Season Surges Across Canada
A significant jump in cases, particularly influenza A (H3N2), is raising concerns about the ongoing impact of respiratory illnesses.
- Canada recorded 10,999 influenza cases during the recent holiday season.
- Almost half of these cases are attributed to the influenza A (H3N2) strain.
- The positivity rate for flu tests reached 33.3%, exceeding previous years.
- Experts suggest vaccination remains the most effective preventative measure.
The number of confirmed flu cases soared to 10,999 over the holiday period, data published by Health Canada reveals. Nearly half of these infections are caused by influenza A (H3N2), a particularly aggressive strain. This surge is prompting health officials to assess the potential for further increases in the coming months.
Holiday Gatherings Fuel Transmission
“The holiday season, with increased gatherings and social activities, naturally contributes to greater transmission,” explained Dr. Eleni Galanis in an interview. “It’s certainly a factor.” The percentage of positive flu tests nationwide reached 33.3% during the same week, a notable increase compared to previous years—27.6% in 2024-2025, 18.7% in 2023-2024, and 24.3% in 2022-2023.
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A Return to Pre-Pandemic Patterns?
These levels haven’t been seen since before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the director general of the Center for Emerging and Respiratory Infections and Pandemic Preparedness at the Public Health Agency of Canada. “During the pandemic, influenza cases were significantly lower as people took precautions like masking and isolating,” Dr. Galanis noted. However, she also pointed out that similar peaks have occurred in past decades.
“Before the pandemic, comparing data was challenging,” she explained. “But we’ve observed seasons with comparable positivity rates, in the 25 to 35% range.”
What’s Next for the Flu Season?
Dr. Galanis believes Canada may have already experienced the peak of this flu season. However, she doesn’t entirely rule out the possibility of additional waves. “There are two potential scenarios,” she said. “Rates could gradually decline through the spring, or we might see a second, smaller peak.”
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Influenza A (H3N2) is the dominant strain driving these cases. “This strain has impacted countries across the Northern Hemisphere this year,” Dr. Galanis said. “We’ve seen a rapid peak and simultaneous increases in cases across different regions of Canada.”
Who is Most Vulnerable?
Children and the elderly have been disproportionately affected by the recent surge, a typical pattern. However, the pandemic may be playing a role, particularly among young children. “Children born during or since the pandemic have had less exposure to influenza, especially H3N2,” Dr. Galanis explained. “This could explain the higher number of cases we’re seeing in this age group.”
Protecting Yourself from the Flu
Vaccination remains the most effective defense against the flu, according to Dr. Galanis. “Vaccination rates directly impact flu rates,” she emphasized. “We saw a decline in vaccination rates in the past two years, and that could contribute to the current situation.” Vaccination also offers protection against other respiratory viruses, including COVID-19 and respiratory syncytial virus.
Here are other protective measures recommended by public health officials:
- Stay home if you are feeling unwell.
- Wear a mask if you have symptoms.
- Wash your hands frequently.
- Clean and disinfect frequently touched surfaces.
