2024-04-04T20:02:01+00:00
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/ On Thursday, Israeli media presented several scenarios for what it described as “Iranian revenge”, after the assassination of Revolutionary Guard leader Mohammad Reza Zahedi, in an Israeli attack targeting the consular office of the Tehran embassy in the Syrian capital, Damascus.
According to the military correspondent for the Israeli Channel 14, Hillel Biton Rosen, Tel Aviv is preparing for the possibility of Iran directly attacking the Israeli army bases, and preparing for this type of attack includes the possibility that the security establishment will be forced to respond, if Iran attacks Israel directly.
According to the Hebrew channel, there is an understanding between Israel and the Americans that the United States will defend Israel, if necessary, by using its military weapons in the Middle East.
Earlier Wednesday, Haaretz newspaper, in an article by its writer, Alon Pinkas, mentioned the possible methods of Iranian retaliation in 4 scenarios. What are they?
The first option: Iran adheres to its long-standing policy of not responding immediately, but rather waiting patiently to retaliate at a carefully chosen time, place, and target that is proportional to the symbolic and real damage caused by the Israeli attack. But the importance and symbolism of the targets struck by Israel, the political protest in Tehran demanding revenge to restore honor and deterrence, and Iran’s reputation among its proxies, make this a difficult, but still possible, option, according to the writer.
The second option: Iran has no choice but to respond quickly and proportionately, thus targeting Israeli ships, embassies and individuals abroad. This depends on intelligence and opportunity, two elements that Iran is likely to possess, but the problem with this option is that it unleashes a process of mutual escalatory steps.
The third option: is to move towards a complete escalation through Hezbollah in Lebanon and involve Israel in a second front that is much more deadly and costly than it was in Gaza. This option, according to the author, raises a crucial question regarding the level of Iranian control and influence over Hezbollah: Can Tehran actually force the party to engage in a war that would wreak havoc in Lebanon?
The fourth option: It is a doomsday scenario, in which an angry and humiliated Iran launches attacks that are not limited to important Israeli targets, but also include American targets in the Gulf.
Earlier Thursday, the Israeli army confirmed that, according to a renewed assessment of the situation, it was decided to temporarily suspend the departure of combat units.
The Israeli Broadcasting Corporation reported that Israel has raised the alert level in its embassies around the world to the maximum level.
According to the Commission, several missions in several countries were evacuated after the situation was assessed by the Shin Bet and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and some Israeli representatives abroad were transferred to alternative locations and were also asked not to attend public events at this stage.
Yesterday, Wednesday, Hebrew media reported a state of heightened vigilance in Israel in anticipation of Iran’s possible response to the attack on its consulate in Damascus, and an army statement stated that, as part of evaluating the situation in the army, it was decided to strengthen and recruit reserve soldiers to the air defense systems.