The calculation model of the Jülich Institute for Techno-Economic Systems Analysis shows that more than 300 terawatt hours of natural gas (around 30 million cubic meters) would have to be saved across Europe this year in order to fulfill an EU plan presented at the beginning of March, reports the “Spiegel”.
EU Commission Vice-President Frans Timmermans had stated that the EU member states could forego two-thirds of their gas supplies from Russia by the end of the year and replace them from other sources. At the same time, the states should fill their storage facilities to at least 80 percent of the maximum capacity by November – in order to get through the next winter without Russian gas if necessary.
Big cuts needed
According to the model calculations of the Jülich Institute, both goals can only be achieved with significant savings on the part of industry, as the “Spiegel” further reported. As a result, all steel mills, chemical plants or cement works in the EU would have to be shut off from gas by the end of July – and gas-fired power plants for most of July.
This is the only way to achieve the EU’s interim goal of filling 63 percent of the storage tanks by August 1, according to the model calculations, according to “Spiegel”. In October, further caps would therefore be necessary for the industry to reach the 80 percent level by November 1st. All of this is also based on the optimistic assumption that imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline gas from other countries can again be increased significantly. Numerous countries are currently struggling to rapidly expand their liquid gas infrastructure, and prices are skyrocketing here too.
“If the storage tanks are to be filled in accordance with the planned specifications and at the same time deliveries from Russia are to be reduced to such an extent, this is only possible with significant restrictions for industry and power plants,” said Jochen Linßen, professor at Forschungszentrum Jülich, the “Spiegel”.
Emergency plans want to secure supplies for private individuals
A conflict is already emerging in the EU as to where specific gas savings are to be made. The German emergency plan for gas provides, for example, that customers such as private households or social services such as hospitals must be given priority. Savings could therefore only be made by companies that need gas for their production or as fuel for power plants. Business representatives, on the other hand, are calling for private end users to be switched off if necessary.
In Austria, with the already activated emergency plan, there is a fundamental possibility to intervene in the gas supply market. The emergency plan consists of three stages that do not have to be called out one after the other. Among other things, these provide for close monitoring of the gas market (level 1), a request to industry to reduce gas consumption (level 2) and rationing in the event of insufficient supplies (level 3). In Austria, too, the primary objective is to ensure that households and small businesses are supplied with gas.
Gas remains the pressure medium
The gas supply is a central means of exerting pressure on Russia in the Ukraine war. A few days ago, Moscow turned off the gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria, explaining that the countries were not sticking to the payment terms. Poland is now receiving help from Lithuania and Slovakia, among others, and from the autumn via a new gas pipeline through the Baltic Sea, the Baltic Pipe. It brings Norwegian natural gas to Poland. Bulgaria also referred to alternatives to Russia.
Poland’s Deputy Foreign Minister Szymon Szynkowski said his country had “prepared well for this scenario for years” and also had high levels in the gas storage facilities. His country has gradually reduced its own dependence on Russian natural gas by around 20 percent since 2015. Poland has built a terminal for liquid gas and now produces about 20 percent of the gas it needs itself.
Austria’s storage tank is 18 percent full
Poland’s gas storage facilities are up to 80 percent full, the EU average is currently only 30 percent. In Austria, the gas storage facilities are particularly badly filled. According to Energy Minister Leonore Gewessler (Greens), 16.7 terawatt hours of gas are currently stored. This corresponds to a filling level of around 18 percent, with the minister pointing out that Austria has “very large” storage facilities.
The government announced this week that up to 6.6 billion euros from the budget will be earmarked for filling the gas storage facilities to 80 percent. At the same time, Gewessler referred to the “bitter reality”. Dependence on Russia cannot be ended overnight. “Our country’s supply of natural gas depends on Russia. If Russia stops supplying gas, that is a serious threat to our supply.” There are currently no signs of a supply stop.