The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has published its report on the economy of sub-Saharan Africa within the framework of the Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank which are being held this week in Washington. According to the report, Guinea-Bissau will register a growth of 4.5% this year, which is expected to reach 5% in 2023. Inflation, meanwhile, is expected to be contained at 5% this year and fall to 3% next year. next year.
The IMF estimates that Guinea-Bissau’s economy will move closer to the average between 2011 and 2019, years when it grew by 3.9% on average. Although this represents an improvement compared to previous years, public debt will still register a significant increase, rising from 79.5% in 2022 to 74.7% in 2024. This increase is well above the average observed between 2011 and 2019 , which was 55.6% of GDP.
IMF experts have listed four priorities for African governments to overcome macroeconomic imbalances amid tight funding. Consolidating public finances and strengthening public financial management in a context of difficult financing conditions will depend on continued mobilization of resources, better management of fiscal risks and more proactive debt management. The second priority is inflation, which hit 105% last year and is expected to slow to about half this year. The third priority is to allow the exchange rate to float, while mitigating the negative effects on the economy. Finally, the fourth priority is to ensure that climate change and the financing to combat and mitigate it do not undermine spending on basic needs such as health and education.
With regard to the region, the IMF forecasts growth of 3.6% for sub-Saharan Africa this year and 4.2% in 2024. African governments must improve their financial management, contain inflation, allow for adjustments exchange rates and ensure that climate change does not affect core expenditure budgets. The IMF has more than 20 ongoing financial assistance programs in the region, almost half of the total for the 54 countries in the region.
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