Will the second time be good for Kevin McCarthy? After a failure in 2015, the Californian representative hopes to become Speaker of the House on Tuesday, two months after the narrow victory of the Republicans during the midterms. But uncertainty hangs over the rebelliousness of a dozen rebellious elected conservatives, and minimal room for maneuver for McCarthy. Who will want to avoid a historic rout: it has been 100 years since all Speakers were elected on the first ballot.
Who is Kevin McCarthy?
Elected for the first time in 2006, the representative of the Bakersfield region, a rural area in central California, rose through the ranks of the Republican party, taking care not to hold anyone up. In 2015, he was the favorite to become Speaker after the resignation of John Boehner. But a blunder in an interview in which he suggested the Benghazi investigation commission’s purpose was primarily to woo Hillary Clinton, and accusations of infidelity prompted him to withdraw his candidacy. After Paul Ryan retired in 2018, McCarthy became the Republican Minority Leader.
Why is his victory not guaranteed?
The red tide did not wash over Congress in November. With 222 elected Republicans out of 435, Kevin McCarthy only owes four defections to stay above the absolute majority (218). He could, however, be elected with fewer votes if some Republicans simply vote “present” and not against him. In recent weeks, McCarthy has courted lawmakers from the Freedom Caucus, a far-right Trumpist parliamentary group. He promised there would be no blank check to Ukraine and to launch a parliamentary inquiry into Hunter Biden. On Sunday, he agreed to reinstate a rule allowing a motion to be tabled for the head of a Speaker with just five votes. He convinced Marjorie Taylor Greene but nine elected officials, including Matt Gaetz and Paul Gosar, threaten not to support him.
Why the Republican Party could sink into “chaos”?
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich banged his fist on the table, saying it was “McCarthy or chaos”. If McCarthy is not elected directly, negotiations would begin before a second round, and others if necessary. The elected Californian could try one last time to seduce his detractors, but with the risk of seeing opponents emerge like his lieutenant Steve Scalise, the loyal Trump Jim Jordan or the representative of North Carolina Patrick McHenry. Since the breakthrough of the Tea Party in 2009, the Republican Party has been torn between the centrists and the ultra-conservatives. Even if elected, McCarthy risks being a fragile boss, with a union that could explode at the first obstacle, such as the vote on the budget.