2023-12-06 21:20:46
It has long been known that global warming is already causing potentially dangerous and possibly irreversible changes in the earth’s system and how this process will accelerate even further once the 1.5 degree limit agreed in the Paris Agreement is exceeded. Nevertheless, these so-called tipping elements occupied the participants of the UN climate summit COP28 in Dubai on Tuesday. The now very concrete risks associated with exceeding “negative tipping points” should be given greater consideration by climate diplomacy and included in national climate strategies and climate adaptation plans.
This is what the more than 200 climate and social researchers recommend, who, under the leadership of earth system researchers from the University of Exeter in Dubai, have presented a comprehensive report on the effects of tipping elements. However, the scientists were not only interested in presenting an overview of all 26 tilting elements of the Earth system that have been examined so far. They also looked at “positive tipping elements” that arise from technological and social changes and offer the opportunity to counteract global climate change.
Scientists consider these social tipping elements in the broadest sense to include the spread of renewable energy sources achieved through low prices and technical advances. In transport, the switch from combustion engines to climate-friendly drives could also bring about a turning point. Further potentially positive tipping elements are presented in food production and consumption as well as possible reactions of the financial markets to the boom in climate-friendly industries.
As far as the risky physical tipping elements in the Earth system are concerned, the researchers see the planet as having reached a “decisive moment”. Continuing as before – “business as usual” – is no longer possible. Acute risks exist with global warming averaging 1.3 degrees for five tipping elements: the melting of the ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica, the critical slowing of the subpolar vortex circulation in the North Atlantic, the thawing of some permafrost areas in the world and mass bleaching and die-off of warm water corals. If global warming finally rises above 1.5 degrees Celsius, which given the current trend is expected by the beginning of the 2030s at the latest, three other systems could collapse: the boreal forests, mangroves and seagrass meadows.
In their report, the scientists point out that there are still considerable uncertainties as to the extent to which these tilting elements have already exceeded critical temperature thresholds – or when the tilting can be reliably detected. Many processes, such as the melting of ice in the north and south or the collapse of ocean circulation, are – on a human scale – slow-acting changes. On the other hand, most of the tipping elements, such as ice melting, are central “adjusting screws” in the Earth system that have a global impact and which have an impact on other parts of the climate system and could thus accelerate the collapse.
The risk of tipping cascades needs to be further researched. In addition, the scientists derive some recommendations from their analysis: the use of fossil fuels should be ended before 2050, precautionary measures should be taken in particularly threatened regions, and politics should strengthen possible positive social tipping elements. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is also being asked to pay more attention to the tipping elements.
Christian Geinitz, Dubai Published/Updated: , Recommendations: 3 Christian Geinitz, Dubai Published/Updated: Recommendations: 5 Christian Geinitz, Dubai Published/Updated: Recommendations: 3
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