At a time when some positive signals are arriving from Yemen, the two powers which are confronting each other by proxy have resumed contact. Saudi Arabia and Iran met from April 21 to 23 in Baghdad for their fifth round of negotiations, under the aegis of Iraqi Prime Minister Moustafa Al Kazimi. The Gulf rivals, who broke off relations in January 2016, officially resumed dialogue in April 2021.
→ REREAD. Iran – Saudi Arabia: towards a normalization of relations?
But the ground remains shifting between the two capitals. In March, the Iranian media announced a « suspension » of these discussions, after the execution by Riyadh of 81 people, for crimes related to terrorism. The majority of these condemned were Shiites, for some linked to the Houthi rebellion that Tehran supports in Yemen.
Some progress “
At the end of the discussions of the past few days between the Saudi intelligence chief, Khalid Al Humaidan, and the deputy secretary of the National Security Council Saied Iravani, the tone seemed to be appeased. Iranian diplomacy spokesman Said Khatibzadeh hails a round of talks “positive and serious”, going so far as to mention ” progress “.
Lebanon, Syria, Iraq… There is no shortage of subjects of contention between the two giants of the Middle East, starting with Yemen, which has entered its eighth year of war, with increased indifference since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Saudi Arabia leads an international coalition there that has been intervening militarily against the Houthis since 2015.
→ READ. War in Yemen: UN announces two-month truce and start of talks
During these discussions, the Saudis expressed their concerns about the role played by Tehran in Yemen, and urged Iran to be more positive in this conflict, according to the specialized site Amwaj. media. The Iranians have welcomed the two-month truce negotiated on April 1 by the United Nations.
A new phase
This meeting, preceded by several preliminary discussions between Saudis and Iranians in Oman, can be seen as a timid step forward. “These discussions illustrate a new phase that is much more positive than two years ago under Donald Trumpbelieves Thierry Coville, researcher at Iris, specialist in Iran. The Iranians are willing to calm things down with the Saudis, but they should not be counted on to raise the white flag. And it is likely that these discussions will not go as quickly as the Saudis would like. »
Riyadh is looking for a way out of this costly war from a military and security point of view, the Houthi attacks on its soil having multiplied in recent months. The Iranian authorities, on the other hand, do not make it a priority. Faced with a catastrophic economic and social situation, Tehran is more concerned about the – pending – negotiations on Iranian nuclear power. Moreover, he does not exercise the direct power that is sometimes attributed to him over the Houthis, who have developed their own agenda since they control the capital Sanaa and most of the north of the country. “It is not a master-student relationship, contrary to what we see with the Lebanese Hezbollahnotes Thierry Coville. And it is not said that Iran has the will or even the means to impose its point of view on the Houthis. »
A new presidential council
Still, since the beginning of the month, the guns have been silent, with the exception of a few sporadic outbreaks of violence. This fragile truce allowed the easing of restrictions on air and maritime space, as well as oil deliveries to the port of Hodeïda. The hoped-for resumption of commercial flights, with two weekly trips to and from Sanaa, is however long overdue: the first flight for six years, scheduled for Sunday departing from the capital, has been postponed for lack of authorization from the coalition.
On the political side, a new presidential council to lead the country was sworn in on April 19, the culmination of a major political shake-up, overseen in part by Saudi Arabia, following the surprise resignation of President Abd Rabbo. Mansour Hadi, April 7.
A new meeting between Saudi and Iranian officials should take place in the coming weeks. If nothing is done to end the war, the UN estimates that 19 million Yemenis could need food assistance during the second half of the year.