Hello, it’s lunchtime in Paris and Prime Minister Jean Castex will present the government’s “resiliency” plan to help businesses and the French people cope with the economic and social consequences of the war in Ukraine.
What happened yesterday? President Emmanuel Macron responded to critics who said he is putting his presidential duties ahead of running an election campaign. “What would people say if I did things wrong?” said the president. “Campaigns with a president who chooses to run for reelection are always a bit special; that’s normal.”
Why does it matter? These criticisms could become a handicap for the president and weaken electoral turnout. He will try to quell them by presenting his platform at length on Thursday.
The president of the French Sénat is always a person to listen to carefully, despite the unfashionable image of this assembly. They are the third person of the state in terms of protocol and hold the president’s office when the incumbent is unable to perform their duties. Contrary to the Assemblée nationale, the Sénat does not have the last word on legislation, except when constitutional reforms are at stake. The current Sénat president’s virulent criticism of President Macron is all the more disturbing.
Gérard Larcher, part of the conservative Les Républicains party and a former veterinarian, is upset by President Macron’s decision not to participate in a debate with the other 11 candidates. Until 2017, French presidential debates were held only between the two candidates who qualified for the second round. The president’s representatives affirmed that such a debate would turn into a pile-on, with everyone attacking the current president. It wouldn’t be a fair challenge with such limited speaking time, they said. The president of the Senate does not buy this explanation.
“If there is no campaign, the question of the winner’s legitimacy will arise,” Mr. Larcher warned in an interview with the right-wing newspaper Le Figaro on Tuesday. He didn’t stop there. “The president wants to be re-elected without ever having been a real candidate, without a campaign, without debate, without a confrontation of ideas. All the candidates are debating except him. It is a paradox!” He went on to say that “Our fractured country, indebted and facing multiple problems, needs this debate.”
Mr. Larcher’s true motivations remain unclear. To his chagrin, his party’s candidate, Valérie Pécresse, is in free fall. The second round seems to be out of reach for Ms. Pécresse. Even if she advances past the first round, she is expected to receive fewer votes than far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, according to the latest poll The world published on March 5. It’s a result that’s hard to imagine happening just a few years ago. In contrast, President Macron got ahead of the curve in a way that none of his predecessors had been able to do after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It would take a catastrophe for him to lose his commanding lead in less than four weeks.
These critics about the fairness of an election to come seem almost Trumpian. Before the election has even taken place, Mr. Larcher is already questioning the legitimacy of a president who, according to him, is not campaigning enough. But even more revealing, Mr. Larcher is expressing, albeit unwittingly, the defeatism that is beginning to take hold of many of the president’s opponents.
Major upheavals are looming, raising more questions than answers. Almost all political parties are facing a bleak future. What will happen to the Parti Socialiste if Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo is unable to gather more than 2% of the vote ? How can far-right candidate Marine Le Pen survive as the head of Rassemblement National if she loses a third presidential bid in a row, with a party close to bankruptcy? The question is the same for leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, running also for the third time as the main driving force of his party. Finally, will Les Républicains, increasingly divided internally, overcome a second first-round elimination when its candidates used to always make it to the runoffs?
All of President Macron’s opponents lament his alleged desire to avoid campaigning. These critiques sound like pre-emptive excuses for defeat when many political upheavals are expected after the second round of the presidential election.
Quote of the day
“In this election we have a choice between ecology or barbarism.”
Even though President Macron refuses to debate his opponents before the first round, face-to-face debates are on the rise. After the shouting match between conservative Valerie Pécresse and far-right candidate Eric Zemmour last week, green candidate Yannick Jadot will debate far-right candidates Marine Le Pen on Wednesday and Eric Zemmour on Thursday. Mr. Jadot, whose campaign lacks momentum, justified his choice by highlighting the importance of putting environmental issues at the front of France’s political agenda.
Countdown
25 Days until the presidential election’s first round
39 Days until the presidential election’s second round.
Thanks for reading, see you tomorrow.