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Despite a projected decline in wholesale electricity costs, Romanian households are unlikely to see corresponding reductions in their energy bills. Experts attribute this disconnect to a lack of consumer pressure, allowing suppliers to maintain what they describe as unreasonably high rates.
The anticipated downward trend in the Romanian energy market isn’t automatically translating into savings for consumers. Suppliers, it appears, have little incentive to lower tariffs without increased demand for competitive pricing and a shift away from reliance on state intervention.
According to current data from OPCOM, the weighted average trading prices are expected to decrease over the next two years. An optimistic forecast suggests prices could reach approximately 1.2 lei/kWh including VAT by July 2026, and further fall to 1.15 lei/kWh with VAT by July 2027. these projections factor in existing rates, typical commercial margins seen during price-capping periods, and applicable taxes for consumers in Bucharest.
Though, the market reality diverges substantially from this optimistic outlook. In the absence of competition driven by consumer choice, suppliers are continuing to charge prices that exceed justifiable levels.
Competition Exists, But Consumer Engagement Remains Low
Data from ANRE reveals that the average price among the top 20 supplier offers has decreased by 6% in the last five months, coinciding with increased competition. Those consumers who have switched providers are already realizing cost savings.
However, the number of active consumers engaging with the market remains limited, hindering the broader impact of this competition. Currently, most Romanians are paying an average of 1.45 lei/kWh including VAT – a high rate expected to persist until at least July 2026. A resident of a two-room apartment could potentially save around 500 lei between November 2025 and July 2026 by selecting the most affordable offer available on the ANRE Comparator.
A Paradox of Desire and Inaction
An october 2025 Energy Security Barometer conducted by INSCOP highlights a striking paradox:-
- 61.4% of Romanians state they would only consider switching providers if presented with a more favorable deal.
- 37.5% fully dismiss the idea of changing suppliers.
This widespread passivity is effectively stifling the natural decline in prices across the market. The INS price index for recent months demonstrates this trend:-
| Month | Electricity Price Index |
|---|---|
| Jul 25/Jun 25 | 161.57 |
| Aug 25/jul 25 | 102.56 |
| Sept 25/Aug 25 | 100.59 |
| Oct 25/Sept 25 | 99.73 |
Experts Urge Direct Consumer Action
The president of AEI, Dumitru Chisăliță, emphasizes that relying on another price-capping mechanism is not the solution. Instead, he advocates for proactive engagement from consumers.-
“The only ones who can help ourselves are ourselves: continuously changing suppliers when there is a better price in the market,continuously demanding an account of the current energy supplier,publicly requesting the help of the political class,not for capping (because whenever we received a capped price,after that period we received prices that ‘humped us’),but to eliminate the causes that determine the price increase,” he stated.
Ultimately, the power to drive down energy costs in Romania rests with the consumers themselves.
