Jakarta – The Indonesian Rupiah showed resilience on Wednesday, February 25, 2026, rebounding from previous losses to close slightly higher against the US dollar. The gains came amid a complex interplay of global economic factors and domestic policy considerations, including a recent ruling by the US Supreme Court impacting trade tariffs between the two nations. Understanding the nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS is crucial for businesses and investors navigating the Indonesian economy.
According to Bloomberg Technoz, the Rupiah appreciated 0.17%, or 29 points, to Rp16,800 per US dollar on Wednesday. This followed a previous day’s decline of 27 points to Rp16,829 per dollar. Simultaneously, the US Dollar Index weakened by 0.13% to 97.71. The Rupiah’s performance reflects its sensitivity to both international sentiment and internal economic developments.
A key factor influencing the market is the reaction to a recent decision by the US Supreme Court regarding tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump. Indonesia and the United States had previously agreed to adjust tariffs on Indonesian products, lowering them from 32% to 19%. However, following the Supreme Court’s rejection of Trump’s tariff policies, the former president indicated his intention to implement a new global tariff of 15%. This development has sparked hope among some Indonesian stakeholders that the existing trade agreement could be revisited, potentially leading to more favorable terms.
President Prabowo Subianto has reportedly instructed his administration to assess the implications of the US Supreme Court ruling and its potential impact on Indonesian trade, according to Trading Economics. The expectation is that a reversal of the current agreement could benefit Indonesian exporters, as the previously negotiated 19% tariff rate is considered higher than desired.
Bank Indonesia’s Stance and Monetary Policy
Alongside external factors, monetary policy from Bank Indonesia (BI) is playing a significant role in stabilizing the Rupiah. BI has reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining inflation within its target range while prioritizing Rupiah stability through proactive liquidity measures. Officials have stated that the currency remains undervalued and have pledged to intervene if necessary, supported by ample foreign exchange reserves.
BI has also signaled potential for further monetary easing to support economic growth, having already implemented a cumulative 150 basis point reduction in interest rates since September 2024. This balancing act – maintaining price stability while fostering growth – is central to BI’s strategy for managing the Rupiah’s value.
Rupiah’s Performance Over Time and Future Outlook
Despite the recent gains, the Rupiah has experienced a weakening trend over the past year. It has depreciated by 0.47% in the last month and by 3.06% over the past 12 months, positioning it as the third-weakest currency in Asia, according to available data. However, analysts suggest the current market valuation may be overly pessimistic.
Bloomberg’s Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) model estimates the Rupiah’s fair value at approximately Rp15,446 per US dollar. This model analyzes macroeconomic variables to determine a currency’s equilibrium exchange rate over the medium to long term. Compared to the current market rate, which has fluctuated between Rp16,700 and Rp16,900, and even briefly touched Rp17,000, the BEER model indicates the Rupiah is currently undervalued.
Trading Economics projects the Rupiah will trade at Rp16,831.67 by the end of the current quarter and anticipates a further strengthening to Rp16,567.90 within the next 12 months. These forecasts are based on the firm’s global macro model and analyst expectations.
Recent Market Movements
14:57 WIB
Rupiah Terangkat Tipis
Nilai tukar rupiah mengalami penguatan tipis sebesar 0,02% menjadi Rp16.763 per dolar AS menjelang penutupan perdagangan.
09:27 WIB
Rupiah Terapresiasi 0,23%
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA — Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat (AS) menguat ke posisi Rp16.761 pada hari ini, Rabu (25/2/2026).
Mengutip Bloomberg, rupiah menguat sebesar 39 poin atau 0,23% menuju level Rp16.761 per dolar AS. Sementara itu, indeks dolar AS mengalami pelemahan sebesar 0,13% menuju posisi 97,57.
The Indonesian Rupiah’s trajectory remains closely tied to global economic conditions, US trade policy, and the proactive measures taken by Bank Indonesia. Market participants will be closely watching for further developments regarding the US-Indonesia trade relationship and any adjustments to BI’s monetary policy in the coming weeks. The next key indicator will be the release of Indonesia’s trade balance data for March, scheduled for release in mid-April, which will provide further insight into the country’s economic performance and the Rupiah’s outlook.
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