2023-09-08 17:23:47
The G20 summit takes place this weekend in New Delhi, India, to discuss global problems, with the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, being the main absentees from this meeting. Álvaro Vasconcelos, a Portuguese specialist in International Relations, recognizes that Xi Jinping’s absence weakens the possibilities of a decision on Ukraine leaving the G20 that would bring China to “a position closer to international law”.
RFI: What impact will the absences of Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping have at the G20 summit?
Álvaro Vasconcelos, Portuguese specialist in International Relations: The absence of the Chinese President [Xi Jinping] it’s by Vladimir Putin [chefe de Estado da Rússia] have different impacts. Putin’s absence is good news, because it would allow for a calmer discussion and possible consensus on the Ukraine issue. In turn, the absence of the Chinese President clearly weakens the possibility of a decision on Ukraine coming out of this G20 that would bring China to a position closer to international law and respect for the relations of the United Nations. I think that is why Xi Jinping will not be present at the summit.
The rivalries between China and India are well known, particularly over territorial issues on the Himalayan border. Will this absence of Xi Jinping exacerbate these rivalries?
It goes without saying. We have entered a polycentric world, with immense powers that play an important and influential role in resolving major international issues. Among these great powers of the polycentric world are China and India, which will certainly be the two great powers in the next 50/100 years, following the USA. However, we do not know what the future of the United States will be in this international competition. In this sense, the rivalry between China and India continues to increase.
Not only because of significant border disputes, but also because of water problems. The rivers that come from China to India and that China tends to divert, as there is, in a way, a competition for international leadership. At least, of what is today called leadership of the sub-global world. The two nations have different positions. While, India has a somewhat neutral position between China and the USA. China is in the process of emerging to be the world’s leading power and India certainly does not want it to be that way.
Does India have a multi-alignment stance?
Exactly. Today, India’s multi-alignment is closer to the Western camp than it is to the Chinese camp, given the rivalry with China. Let’s say it’s a multi-alignment with a certain alignment, which wasn’t the case during the Cold War, with the Western world.
The Chinese President, who participated in the BRICS summit in South Africa, chose to send Prime Minister Li Qiang to New Delhi. Could this choice reveal global fragmentation?
There is global fragmentation because we are no longer in a world of North American hegemony. We are not in a world in which the international order is imposed by the Western alliance, namely by the United States, and in this post-hegemonic world a form of multilateral order has not yet been found that corresponds to the transformations of power that have taken place in the international system.
What do I mean by this? India, the world’s most populous country and one of the world’s five largest economies, is not part of the United Nations Security Council. A If we look at the United Nations Security Council. India, which is a nuclear power and sends lunar probes, is not represented. In other words, the international order is still the same as it was after the Second World War, homogenized by the United States, this no longer corresponds to reality, leading to fragmentation.
This is an important question, since the G20 is where all the great powers are. This is not the case in the United Nations Security Council.
The G20 has gained importance in recent years, becoming more representative of global diversity than the United Nations Security Council. The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, came to defend the presence of the African Union in the G20 and the UN Security Council. Do you think there will be progress in this matter?
The G20 is 19 States plus the European Union. There is no reason why the African Union should not be part of it. But we are moving from multilateralism based on United Nations rules to multilateralism with many fewer rules.
The African Union joins the G20, making the organization increasingly more similar to the United Nations, but without having the basis of multilateralism with rules that exists in the United Nations.
What announcements could emerge from this G20 summit?
That, on the issue of the environment, there was a clear announcement of a reduction in CO2 emissions and that progress was made towards this consideration: A climate that allows life on earth is a common heritage. That countries will make efforts in these areas. Now, everything suggests that this will not happen. The meeting of Foreign Affairs and Climate ministers, which preceded the G20, ended without results.
India will continue to use coal and emit CO2, more than what it committed to in the Paris Agreements, arguing that some countries have already developed and that the time has come for them to [indianos] do so. Or, developed countries pay enough for India to make the energy transition. That would be fundamental.
European leaders hope that this G20 summit will be an occasion to try to get India and China to take a tougher stance on Russia, following the Russian offensive in Ukraine. Do you believe in the success of this intention?
There will certainly be some statement about Ukraine. However, this declaration will not have the support of the Russian or Chinese authorities. We cannot think that the G20 will be a sufficiently enlightening stage for the path to peace in the war in Ukraine, which takes place much more in the field of military conflict than in the field of diplomacy.
Economists and millionaires have launched a petition urging G20 leaders to tax the richest to end global inequalities. Will the leaders of the richest countries be available to make this commitment?
We have not seen will in this domain. However, it is possible that there will be some declaration that minimally satisfies the interests of the poorest countries in the field of development and announcements of more significant support with regard to economic development, thus allowing the energy transition.
What would also be important -in this area- was to start talking about reforming the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to give more voice to the countries that emerged, such as India and China, which could be an interesting conclusion of this G20
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