2024-07-17 14:55:02
“We should not ask if Ukraine will lose, but when Russia will lose,” said elite American historian Timothy Snyder in Prague. In his lecture and in the subsequent debate, organized by Czech Radio Plus and the Václav Havel Library, he explained that the Kremlin is failing to fulfill its military goals and that Russian propaganda is also significantly losing steam.
“I don’t think any of you watch Russian propaganda TV as often as I do,” Snyder joked, and the entire Vršovice Vzlet hall, where he performed, burst into laughter. “And I’ll tell you that at first the Russian version of the story looked organized. Now it’s not like that anymore. They’re losing it. And that’s on top of all the other losses on the battlefield,” is a convinced historian and professor at the prestigious Yale University, who has been devoted to the history of Eastern Europe for a long time.
The Russian military is now facing its worst losses since the beginning of the invasion. In May and June, according to data from the British Ministry of Defense, more than 70,000 soldiers were probably killed or wounded. It is related to the fact that Russia has opened a new front in the Kharkiv region and at the same time continues to press hard on the many hundreds of kilometers of front line in the east and south of Ukraine.
“The Russians lost essentially the same number of troops as the Americans did in Vietnam to take virtually no territory in the Kharkiv region as a result. I personally think the Russian state is far worse off than people generally realize,” said Snyder, the author award-winning bestsellers such as Bloody Lands or The Road to Freedom. The British predict that Russian soldiers in Ukraine will die about a thousand a day in the next two months.
According to Snyder, Russia is also plagued by economic difficulties. The historian pointed out that Vladimir Putin’s regime is facing economic problems as a result of Western sanctions, forcing it to sell raw materials to China to plug the gap in the market. In addition, he also has difficulty producing the basic items he needs to wage war.
“If Ukraine manages to maintain the support of Europe and the United States in the long term, at least for four or five years, it will have an economic advantage,” says Timothy Snyder.
Problems of the Russian economy
American analyst and member of the editorial staff of the Ukrainian newspaper The Kyiv Post Jason Jay Smart, who has not been allowed to enter Russia since 2010 because he worked for the opposition there, shares a similar opinion. He claims that the Russian economy could collapse if allies continue to support Ukraine. “Although Russia has a larger population, its old tactic of winning wars only thanks to numerical superiority no longer works,” he explained to Aktuálně.cz.
According to Smart, Putin’s government is strategically keeping the unemployment rate artificially low by creating unsustainable jobs. “This approach is not viable in the long term and hides the true state of the economy,” Smart said, adding that he believes the Kremlin chief wants to buy time with such moves because he knows Russia’s economy is in trouble, which will only get worse as the war drags on.
Historian Serhii Plokhy from the American Harvard University thinks that, from a historical point of view, the war cannot end in any other way than the defeat of Russia. “The conflict in Ukraine, like many others, is about the collapse of an empire. We know how wars end: empires fall apart and new independent states appear on the maps,” he said three weeks ago in an interview with Aktuálně.cz.
The former commander of the British armed forces, General Richard Barrons, is not so optimistic. According to him, the West must also count on the possibility that Ukraine will lose this year. He pointed out to the British BBC that they have critically low stocks of ammunition, soldiers and air defenses. In turn, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi warned that Ukraine’s allies want Kyiv to “win so that Russia does not lose.”
Russian “Plan A”
According to Snyder, Putin could only win if the West helped him to do so. “If we allow a nuclear power to just roll over Ukraine, we’re going to create a world where middle-sized countries in Europe and Asia believe they have to build nuclear weapons to defend themselves. And that’s a world where nuclear war is much more more likely,” the historian explained.
At the Prague conference, Snyder also described how Russia’s war strategy relies on influencing American politicians. “Their plan A is Donald Trump. They are obsessed with him,” he said, noting that Russian efforts are focused on profiling and promoting American politicians they know will directly or indirectly help their agenda.
According to the historian, the Kremlin carefully evaluates each potential ally, especially when it comes to Ukraine. “If he coincides with the Russian goals, then they will start supporting him on the networks like now, for example, Senator from Ohio James David Vance,” he said. Vance was chosen by Trump as his running mate for the November presidential election.
Snyder has been writing about Eastern Europe in his books for a long time and explains the events on the continent in lectures all over the world. In Prague, he received a medal for his merits from the head of Czech diplomacy, Jan Lipavský (Pirates). “He shows us why and how we should defend freedom and democracy,” the minister said when presenting him with the award.
Video: When Ukraine falls, another Russia will fight, Snyder said at Tallinn conference (May 2024)
Timothy Snyder, professor of history and global affairs at Yale University | Video: Lennart Meri Conference