As Bolivia’s political landscape fractured in the lead-up to the 2025 presidential election, a new element emerged: the involvement of operatives linked to Russia’s Wagner Group, according to a recently leaked dossier. The Kremlin’s interest in the outcome of the Bolivian election highlights a broader pattern of Russian interference in Latin America, aimed at bolstering allies and expanding its influence in the region. The operation, carried out by a network known as the “Company,” sought to “stabilize” the government of President Luis Arce and improve his chances of reelection, particularly after a coup attempt in late 2023 triggered significant political instability.
The intervention came following a period of tension between Arce and his predecessor, Evo Morales, a rift that had been brewing for years. In September 2023, dissident army officers led by former General Juan José Zúñiga attempted a coup, a move that some observers alleged was orchestrated by Arce himself to rally support before the August 2025 elections. The “Company,” operating under the authority of Russia’s foreign intelligence service, the SVR, dispatched seven agents to La Paz in response to the attempted coup. Their mission, as detailed in leaked documents obtained by The Continent and shared with Forbidden Stories, was to help Arce regain control of the narrative surrounding the coup and strengthen his electoral position.
A History of Fractures Within Bolivia’s Left
The political turmoil in Bolivia stems from deep divisions within the country’s left-wing movement. Evo Morales, who served as president from 2006 to 2019, remains a powerful figure despite his ouster in 2019 amid widespread protests and allegations of electoral fraud. His relationship with Arce, his former economy minister, deteriorated after Arce took office in 2020. Morales has accused Arce of betraying the principles of their socialist movement, while Arce’s supporters have criticized Morales for seeking to undermine his government. This internal conflict created an opening for external actors, like Russia, to exploit the situation.
The “Company” and Russia’s Expanding Influence
The “Company” is a network of experts behind Russia’s global disinformation campaign, previously exposed in the Propaganda Machine series by Forbidden Stories. Its operations in Bolivia represent an expansion of Russia’s influence efforts in Latin America. According to leaked files, Arce’s government was considered “friendly” to Russian interests, and a potential change in leadership was viewed as a “threat.” The agents were tasked with countering negative narratives surrounding the coup attempt and bolstering Arce’s image ahead of the 2025 elections. The specific tactics employed by the “Company” remain largely undisclosed, but the operation underscores Russia’s willingness to intervene in foreign elections to support its allies.
The Coup Attempt and its Aftermath
The attempted coup in September 2023, led by General Zúñiga, was quickly suppressed by loyalist forces. However, it exposed the fragility of Bolivia’s political system and the deep-seated tensions within the military and the ruling party. Zúñiga accused Arce of attempting to consolidate power and undermine democratic institutions. The incident prompted a crackdown on dissent and raised concerns about the erosion of civil liberties. The timing of the coup attempt, just months before the election, fueled speculation about its true motives. Some analysts suggest that Arce may have intentionally provoked the coup to justify a crackdown on his opponents and rally his base.
Implications for the 2025 Election and Beyond
The Russian intervention raises serious questions about the integrity of Bolivia’s 2025 presidential election. While the extent of the “Company’s” influence remains unclear, the operation demonstrates a willingness to meddle in the country’s democratic processes. The involvement of ex-Wagner agents is particularly concerning, given the group’s history of destabilizing activities in other countries. The situation also highlights the growing competition between Russia and the West for influence in Latin America. As Russia seeks to expand its footprint in the region, the United States and its allies are likely to respond with increased diplomatic and economic engagement.
The leaked documents and subsequent reporting have prompted calls for greater transparency and accountability in Bolivia’s political system. Opposition parties have demanded an investigation into the alleged Russian interference, while civil society groups have urged the government to strengthen safeguards against foreign meddling. The outcome of the 2025 election will have significant implications for Bolivia’s future, as well as for the broader geopolitical landscape of Latin America. The next key date to watch is the official registration period for presidential candidates, expected to open in the spring of 2025, as it will reveal who will be challenging Arce for the presidency.
This situation underscores the increasing complexity of modern political interference and the challenges faced by nations seeking to protect their democratic processes. The case of Bolivia serves as a stark reminder of the need for vigilance and a commitment to safeguarding the integrity of elections in the face of external threats.
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