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Russia Reasserts Influence in Syria as Alliances Shift and Old Conflicts Resurface
A complex realignment of power is underway in Syria, with Russia quietly rebuilding its military and economic presence as a former Al Qaeda leader, now President Ahmed al shara, navigates a treacherous path between international actors. This resurgence comes after a period of perceived decline following the Syrian regime’s consolidation of power, and signals a potentially long-term commitment to the region.
On December 10, 2024, just two days after then-President Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow, and former Al Qaeda leader Ahmed al Shara – known for years as Abu Mohammad al Golani – celebrated victory at the symbolic Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, Russian Ilyushin Il-76 Candid, Antonov An-26, and Antonov An-72 STOL transport aircraft landed at Russian-held bases in Hmeimim and Tartus on the Syrian coast, protected by KA-52 combat helicopters. Satellite imagery from the European SENTINEL-2 system confirmed the same day that the Russian naval fleet stationed in Latakia had moved to international waters in the eastern Mediterranean, positioning its prows southward in what appeared to be a coordinated withdrawal toward North Africa.
This repositioning masked a secret agreement, later acknowledged by Al Shara after being inaugurated as president and accepted by the international community despite his jihadist past, in an interview with the French news agency AFP.Russia’s initial military involvement in Syria dates back to 2013, when approximately 250 personnel from Slavonic Corps Ltd, a pioneering Russian mercenary company, joined the Syrian army and Salafist groups in the Homs region. This early mission against the opposition ended in a “cruento fracaso” – a bloody failure.
A year later, better-trained and equipped detachments from Russian private military companies (PMCs) – Wagner Group, moran Group, and Schif Group – took over, playing a pivotal role in the Syrian army’s victory in the “battle of Palmyra,” then under the control of the powerful Islamic State. Russian generals like sergei Rudskói, then Director General of Operations for the General Staff, and Andrei Troshev, known as “Sedoi,” a veteran of the Soviet-Afghan War, earned medals for their contributions. in 2024, Putin appointed Troshev to lead the Wagner Group (now rebranded as Africa Corps) following the betrayal of its founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Initially, the Kremlin had three primary objectives for its intervention in Syria: to counter the geopolitical ambitions of the United States and Israel in the Middle East, echoing the dynamics of the Cold War; to secure a major naval base in the Mediterranean, circumventing Turkey and facilitating expansion into Africa; and to protect the economic interests of oligarchs close to Putin, such as Gennady Timchenko. While Russian military success initially bolstered the Assad regime, its influence began to wane after 2018, particularly following the “Battle of Khasham” and the regime’s brutal offensive in Ghouta. These events ultimately paved the way for the unlikely alliance that would bring the current Syrian president and former Al Qaeda leader to power seven years later.
In february of that year, dozens of Russian mercenaries were killed alongside Iranian soldiers and Hezbollah fighters in U.S.-backed airstrikes supported by Israeli intelligence, arab mercenary groups, Turkish soldiers, and American PMCs like Constellis (formerly Blackwater), as well as Al Shara’s forces. Al Shara,in a remarkable shift,had distanced himself from both the Islamic State and Al Qaeda,becoming the leader of the Salafist militia Hayat e-Tahrir as-Sham (HTS) in 2017 and the patron of the so-called Syrian Salvation government,with political and economic support from Ankara and military connections through the Turkish PMC SADAT.
“The attention [mediática] on what Russia is doing in Syria has diminished. But the truth is that Russia’s presence there is slowly consolidating again,” warns anna Borshchevskaya, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute. “Moscow retains access to the military bases in Syria in Tartus and Khmeimim and can reuse them for additional tasks, such as centers for sending humanitarian aid to Africa.” Russia remains Syria’s primary oil supplier, prints
