Ukraine Peace Talks Edge Closer, But Deep Distrust and Territorial Disputes Remain
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A potential deal to end nearly four years of full-scale war in Ukraine is taking shape, though significant obstacles remain, according to assessments from Russia, the United States, and Ukraine. Despite cautious optimism, deep-seated distrust – particularly between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin – and contentious issues surrounding territory and nuclear security threaten to derail progress.
A 20-Point Plan Faces Critical Hurdles
Negotiations are reportedly at a “final stage,” as acknowledged by the Kremlin, echoing similar sentiments expressed by former U.S. President Donald Trump, who characterized the remaining issues as “very thorny, very tough.” Zelensky is scheduled to meet with European leaders in France on January 6th to further discuss the path forward. However, a comprehensive agreement hinges on resolving several key sticking points outlined in a 20-point plan currently under consideration.
The Donbas Dilemma: Putin’s Maximalist Demands
The fate of Ukraine’s industrial Donbas region remains a central point of contention. Putin continues to demand full control of the entire Donbas, including the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, despite Ukrainian forces currently occupying most of the Luhansk region and over 75% of Donetsk.
Zelensky has proposed a compromise: a Ukrainian military withdrawal from the area to establish a demilitarized or free economic zone policed by Ukraine, contingent on a reciprocal Russian pullback. The current line of contact would then be monitored by international forces. However, the feasibility of this proposal is questionable, given Russia’s continued military advances. “We can’t just withdraw, it’s out of our law,” Zelensky stated, emphasizing the presence of 300,000 civilians in the region. “It’s not only the law. People live there… We can’t lose those people.”
Russian generals have reportedly informed Putin that they are making gains in capturing Ukrainian territory, and Putin himself has warned that Russia will achieve its objectives “by military means” if Kyiv refuses a peaceful settlement. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War estimate that, at the current rate of advance, it would take Russian forces until August 2027 to fully conquer the remaining areas of Donetsk – a timeline that is far from guaranteed.
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant: A High-Stakes Gamble
Another critical issue centers on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest, which has been under Russian occupation since March 2022. The plant’s six reactors are currently in cold shutdown, relying on external power supplied by Ukraine to prevent a potential meltdown. Re-establishing power generation requires substantial investment, including rebuilding the destroyed Kakhovka hydro-electric dam, which previously provided cooling water.
Ukraine advocates for the demilitarization of the area surrounding the plant and its transformation into a free economic zone. The U.S. has reportedly proposed a joint management arrangement involving the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine. However, Kyiv has deemed this unrealistic, suggesting a 50-50 partnership between the U.S. and Ukraine, with the U.S. controlling the distribution of half of the generated power – implicitly directing it to Russia.
Russia, through the head of its Rosatom nuclear agency, Alexei Likachev, insists that only Russia can ensure the plant’s safety and operation. While acknowledging the possibility of Ukraine utilizing electricity generated by the plant through international cooperation, Russia remains firmly opposed to relinquishing control. A compromise on this issue will require a level of trust that currently does not exist between the two nations.
A Crisis of Confidence
Underlying all negotiations is a profound lack of mutual trust. Zelensky openly expressed his skepticism regarding Trump’s recent suggestion that Putin “wants to see Ukraine succeed,” stating, “I don’t trust Russians and… I don’t trust Putin, and he doesn’t want success for Ukraine.”
Russia has similarly voiced distrust of Ukraine, alleging that Ukrainian forces targeted drones at a Putin residence in the Novgorod region – a claim Kyiv denies, dismissing it as a pretext for further strikes on government buildings in Kyiv.
Additional Obstacles to a Lasting Peace
Beyond territory and the nuclear plant, several other issues could derail a potential deal. Ukraine is seeking robust security guarantees, akin to a NATO response, in the event of future Russian aggression, and aims to maintain a substantial 800,000-strong military. While the U.S. and Europe may consider security commitments, Russia will likely reject the presence of European troops on Ukrainian soil.
The financial cost of the war to Ukraine, estimated at $800 billion (£600bn), also presents a challenge. Discussions are underway regarding a joint investment fund led by the U.S. and Europe, potentially utilizing Russia’s €210 billion (£183bn) in assets held in Europe – assets Moscow has so far refused to release. Russia also continues to oppose Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO and, to a lesser extent, the European Union.
The Question of Ukrainian Consent
Recognizing the sensitivity of these issues, Zelensky has proposed a national referendum and a 60-day ceasefire to allow for public debate and a vote on the proposed 20-point plan. Opinion polls suggest that 87% of Ukrainians desire peace, while 85% oppose ceding territory in the Donbas. However, the Kremlin has argued that a ceasefire would only prolong the conflict, and Trump has expressed understanding of Putin’s position. Zelensky maintains that any agreement lacking popular support would lack legitimacy, further complicating the already fraught negotiations.
