WASHINGTON, February 13, 2026 — The last major treaty limiting U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons has expired, leaving the world bracing for a potentially unconstrained arms race at a moment of heightened global tensions.
The end of the New START treaty, after decades of arms control, raises fears of a new era of nuclear escalation amid conflicts in Ukraine and growing competition with China.
- New START, negotiated in 2010, allowed for verification of each country’s nuclear arsenal, but expired in early February.
- Russia blames the U.S. for dismantling arms control frameworks, while the U.S. points to China’s growing nuclear capabilities as a key factor.
- Both nations are developing new nuclear delivery systems, increasing the risk of miscalculation and escalation.
- Experts suggest a return to dialogue and confidence-building measures is crucial, even amidst geopolitical challenges.
As of early February, after nearly six decades of agreements limiting nuclear weapons, the United States and Russia – which together hold the world’s largest nuclear arsenals – are operating without common terms governing strategic stability. The expiration of New START, negotiated during a period of U.S.-Russia rapprochement in 2010, comes as Europe rapidly re-arms, and U.S. President Donald Trump has even threatened to revive nuclear weapons testing.
A Paradigm Shift in Nuclear Strategy
The era of arms control began in the wake of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, and has demonstrably limited nuclear stockpiles. Warhead totals in Russia and the U.S. have fallen from around 60,000 in 1986 to approximately 12,000 today, largely due to decades of tough negotiations. But the treaties went beyond simply reducing numbers, establishing a process for discussion, verification measures like on-site inspections, and confidence-building steps.
“We need to address the political relationships [between powers and], find new channels of communication, information sharing, and confidence-building,” says Dmitry Suslov, an international affairs expert with the Higher School of Economics in Moscow.
Recently, Mr. Trump agreed to restore a channel for high-level U.S.-Russia military contacts, which had been suspended by the Biden administration in 2021. Russia, however, attributes the unraveling of arms control to the U.S., accusing Washington of seeking to leverage its technological advantages for strategic dominance. Igor Korotchenko, a leading Russian military expert, contends that Mr. Trump’s proposed “Golden Dome” antimissile shield – reminiscent of Ronald Reagan’s “Star Wars” initiative – has compelled Russia to pursue asymmetric deterrents.
“Trump wants to talk with us from a position of strength, but this will not work with Russia,” Korotchenko says. “We will find ways to maintain the military balance.”
New Weapons, Shifting Dynamics
Russia is currently deploying a range of novel nuclear-capable delivery systems intended to ensure a devastating retaliatory strike even in a chaotic strategic environment. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has stated that Russia will adhere to START limits as long as the U.S. does, and most analysts believe a full-scale arms race is unlikely in the immediate future.
However, the collapse of New START may signal a broader shift. The old, bipolar U.S.-Russia dynamic is increasingly outdated as China expands its nuclear arsenal and other nations develop nuclear capabilities, necessitating a new strategic framework.
“In the context of the war in Ukraine, Russia has serious constraints on its ability to upgrade its strategic systems. Its resources are badly strained just now,” says Pavel Devyatkin, a Moscow-based expert with the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. “At least in the short term, the Russians will probably try to keep up this narrative that they are the responsible party, trying to revive the arms control process.”
Russia still hopes Mr. Trump might extend New START for another year. Even if that doesn’t happen, the proliferation of nuclear powers has fundamentally altered strategic calculations. While Russia and the U.S. still possess roughly 90% of the world’s nuclear warheads, the U.S. no longer views Russia as an equal.
China’s growing nuclear arsenal is a major concern, prompting Mr. Trump to suggest any new arms control deal should involve the U.S., Russia, and China – a proposal dismissed by both Beijing and Moscow. Russia has countered that Britain and France should be included, but those nations, having recently agreed on greater coordination and upgrades to their nuclear capabilities, have shown little interest.
“The U.S. clearly doesn’t want any new bilateral deal with Russia,” says Mr. Suslov. “They insist on including China, and the Chinese have made clear that idea is unacceptable. Moscow has said it respects the Chinese position. So, although Moscow would like to see a new, binding arms control accord with the U.S., it doesn’t look like one is on the horizon.”
Russian Defense Ministry Press Service/AP/File
Experts emphasize the need to prevent a runaway arms race and find new avenues for dialogue to reduce tensions and enhance strategic stability. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev recently remarked that “No [new deal] is better than a treaty that only masks mutual distrust.”
Mr. Suslov adds that “arms control is just an instrument that controls a specific aspect of great power rivalry, but does not deal with the basic issues of the confrontation. Today the threat of nuclear war comes not so much from a surprise first strike by one side, as from the danger of a conventional conflict escalating into a nuclear one.”
But the benefits of decades of arms control will be sorely missed, says Mr. Devyatkin. “The world has been a much safer place because of arms control,” he says. “And despite all the current animosity, there is no excuse for not seeing the logic of negotiating to limit nuclear weapons. After all, arms control isn’t something you do among friends, it is part of the adversarial relationship, and we need to find ways to get back to it.”
