The narrative that Russia has enough resources to win a war against Ukraine is not true, the magazine says.
However, Russia will also not be able to end the war easily for several economic reasons. Russia’s military economy is moving towards a dead end, the publication says.
Signs are becoming increasingly apparent that official figures are concealing serious economic hardship caused by both the war and sanctions, the publication said. The Kremlin will not be able to ramp up production fast enough to replace weapons at the rate they are being lost on the battlefield.”
Already, about half of all artillery shells used by Russia in its war against Ukraine come from North Korean stockpiles, the magazine says.
At some point in the second half of 2025, Russia will face a serious shortage of several categories of weapons, the article says.
Not only will Russia not be able to go to war for long, but it will also not be able to make peace easily.
According to Foreign Policy, Russia’s leaders face an unenviable set of dilemmas of their own making. Russia will not be able to continue hostilities after the end of 2025, when the most important weapon systems will begin to run out. However, the conclusion of the peace agreement creates other problems.
Ultimately, the Kremlin will have to choose between three unpleasant options:
- reduce the armed forces and the defense industry, which would cause a recession, but this, in turn, could threaten the regime;
– maintain high defense spending and a bloated peacetime army that could strangle Russia’s economy;
– use the army to obtain the economic resources necessary for its maintenance through new conquests.
“No matter how Russia ends the current war, the economic reality of the country itself will create new forms of uncertainty for Europe,” the publication said.
“Foresighted policymakers should focus on mitigating these future threats,” says Foreign Policy.
How do sanctions impact Russia’s military production capabilities in the ongoing conflict?
Interview Title: Understanding the Limitations of Russia’s War Efforts in Ukraine
Time.news Editor (TNE): Thank you for joining us today. We’re delving into some critical insights about the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. To provide us with the expert perspective, we have Dr. Elena Markov, a renowned analyst in military economics. Welcome, Dr. Markov!
Dr. Elena Markov (DEM): Thank you for having me! It’s great to be here and discuss such an important topic.
TNE: Let’s get straight to the point. Recent analyses suggest that the narrative claiming Russia has sufficient resources to win this war is misleading. Could you elaborate on the main economic factors contributing to this assessment?
DEM: Absolutely. While Russia may appear to have a vast arsenal and resources, the reality is more complex. The economic impact of sustained sanctions and the costs of war have placed significant strain on their military economy. Many experts believe their production capabilities can’t keep pace with the rapid depletion of their military supplies, especially as they continue to engage in prolonged conflicts.
TNE: It’s reported that there are signs of serious economic hardship that are being concealed by official figures. What kind of signs should we be looking for, and what do they tell us about the Kremlin’s situation?
DEM: There’s a growing disconnect between official statistics and ground realities. For example, we’re seeing decreases in industrial output that contradict government claims of economic stability. Additionally, there are shortages of necessary materials for weapons manufacturing. The reliance on imports and the difficulty in securing these due to sanctions reveal deep vulnerabilities in their supply chain. This paints a picture of an economy on the brink, struggling to sustain a wartime footing.
TNE: Considering these economic hardships, can you explain why it’s becoming increasingly difficult for Russia to ramp up weapons production?
DEM: The war has placed immense pressure on Russia’s industrial base. Even with state investment and military contracts, companies are limited by both the availability of components and skilled labor. The sanctions have effectively cut off access to critical technologies and materials needed for production. Moreover, the government’s focus on military spending has come at the expense of other sectors, further destabilizing the overall economy.
TNE: Given this context, what does this mean for the future of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine?
DEM: It’s unlikely that Russia will be able to achieve a quick resolution to the conflict. Their current economic trajectory suggests a grinding war could lead to increased unrest at home, which may compel the Kremlin to pursue negotiations out of necessity rather than strength. On the other hand, Ukraine, bolstered by international support, may find the momentum to capitalize on Russia’s weaknesses.
TNE: Interesting insights, Dr. Markov. Lastly, what recommendations would you have for policymakers in the West regarding their approach to this conflict?
DEM: Policymakers should continue to impose targeted sanctions while also providing robust support to Ukraine. Monitoring Russia’s economic health will be crucial. It’s important to remain flexible in response strategies, especially as Russia’s situation evolves. Emphasizing diplomatic solutions alongside military support could create an environment more conducive to peace negotiations in the future.
TNE: Thank you, Dr. Markov, for your valuable insights on this complex situation. It’s clear that understanding the economic underpinnings is essential in evaluating the war’s trajectory.
DEM: Thank you for having me. It’s crucial that we keep the conversation going and focus on factual analyses as this situation unfolds.
TNE: Indeed. We appreciate you sharing your expertise with us today.