The Russian Investment Forum (RIF), which is to be held from 17 to 19 February 2022 in Sochi, will be postponed with a high degree of probability. Three sources close to the government, as well as an interlocutor in the administration of one of the regions, told Vedomosti about this. The decision will most likely be made next week, said one of the interlocutors. Everything will depend on the rate of spread of the coronavirus, as well as the severity of the course of the disease in those infected with the Omicron strain, one of the interlocutors specified.
Judging by the current situation, it will not be possible to hold the forum on time, added a source close to the government. “This is a matter of mathematical models – with 50,000 cases per day, hardly anyone would dare to hold an event,” the source said. In addition, the decision will depend on the form in which they decide to adopt the bill on QR codes, he specified.
On the hotline of the forum, the correspondent of Vedomosti was informed that information about the transfer has not been received at the moment, and the preparation is going on as usual according to the dates indicated on the website.
The fact that RIF-2022 will take place in February 2022 was announced by the authorities in early October, when there was still no threat of the development of a new strain. On December 20, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko, who is the chairman of the organizing committee of the RIF, said that the organizers are ready for any development of the epidemiological situation and will work with Rospotrebnadzor on the issues of guests staying on the site.
Vedomosti sent a request to the government, the Roscongress Foundation, the administration of the Krasnodar Territory, Rospotrebnadzor and a representative of the Sirius site, where it should take place.
The last time the RIF was held in 2019, then it signed contracts worth almost 1 trillion rubles. The number of participants, according to the organizers, exceeded 8,000 people. In 2020 and 2021 The forum was not held due to the pandemic.
In Russia, over the past day, according to the operational headquarters, 27,179 cases of coronavirus have been recorded, 723 people have died from the disease. In 24 hours, the incidence rates in the country rose sharply – the day before, the operational headquarters reported 23,820 cases.
On January 12, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova announced the inevitability of an increase in the incidence of coronavirus in the country against the backdrop of the spread of the Omicron strain in the world. President Vladimir Putin said the government has “a couple of weeks” to prepare for a new wave of cases.
On the same day, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that the number of cases of coronavirus in the world for the week increased by 55% to 15 million people (the highest figure for the entire period of the pandemic).
Omicron was identified in southern Africa in early November. According to WHO, the new version of the virus has 32 mutations – more than all previously known ones.
As Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin noted earlier, it is planned to discuss the implementation of strategic initiatives approved by the government in autumn at the forum. Chairman of the Board, Director of the Roscongress Foundation Alexander Stuglev said that this year the main focus would be on the development of regions and on the implementation of national projects in them.
The key theme of the forum, according to information on its official website, is “achieving national goals as a response to global challenges.”
Business treats such decisions with understanding, noted Anton Danilov-Danilyan, co-chairman of Business Russia. “Given that the Gaidar Forum was recently held, and we think that the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum will be ahead, the absence of the Sochi Forum is not the worst story,” he says. According to him, there should not be big losses for business, since potential participants, remembering the experience of the first year of the pandemic and understanding the situation with Omicron, could not rush to buy tickets and participate.
A similar point of view is shared by the president of Opora Rossii, Alexander Kalinin. He added that businesses are sympathetic to government decisions aimed at avoiding national lockdowns.
A representative of Cosmos Sochi Hotel told Vedomosti that he did not observe increased demand for February 17-19, and there were no cancellations either. At the same time, the hotel is located quite far from the venue of the forum, the interlocutor added. According to him, hoteliers during a pandemic are accustomed to living in constant change.
The “first signals” appeared on the complete cancellation or postponement of the investment forum in Sochi on Thursday morning, says Natalia Obydennova, General Director of UK GOST Hotel Management. “Already then we began to prepare for how and with what we could replace this segment if all the talk becomes true,” she says.
According to her, against the backdrop of a general decline in demand for Sochi compared to 2020-2021, which hoteliers recorded in December and January, February showed more optimistic forecasts, including because of the forum.
Looking back at the experience of past cancellations or postponements of events of this level and scale, we can predict that hotels of medium (3 *) and medium high (4 *) levels may miss 40 to 55% of the planned revenue, she notes: a high price segment, where demand from groups can be at least partially replaced by individual tourists, it can lose from 15 to 30% of volumes.
.