Russia’s ‘Sarmat’ Missile Faces Mounting Failures, Threatening Nuclear Deterrence
Russia’s ambitious effort to modernize its nuclear arsenal is facing significant setbacks, as repeated failures plague the development of its next-generation intercontinental ballistic missile, the Sarmat. Recent reports suggest the program is struggling to overcome technical hurdles, raising concerns about the future of Russia’s strategic deterrence capabilities.
The Sarmat, touted by Russian officials as a revolutionary weapon, has so far demonstrated a remarkable propensity for malfunction. Russian President Vladimir Putin previously described the missile as a “truly unique weapon” intended to dissuade potential adversaries, while a former head of Russia’s space agency hailed it as a “superweapon” following an initial test in 2022. However, subsequent tests have painted a far less optimistic picture.
The missile’s first full-scale test in 2022 appeared successful, but a string of failures followed, culminating in a catastrophic explosion last year that destroyed the Sarmat’s underground launch silo in northern Russia. A more recent test, conducted last week, reportedly ended in another failure, though definitive confirmation remains elusive due to the limited resolution of available video footage.
Analysts largely agree that the failed test likely involved a Sarmat missile, rather than the older R-36M2 ICBM it is designed to replace. “The urgent renovation” of a missile silo at Dombarovsky, which began in Spring 2025 after the thaw, “lends support for the hypothesis that last week’s accident involved the Sarmat,” noted Etienne Marcuz, an analyst at the Foundation for Strategic Research, a French think tank.
The R-36M2, originally constructed in Ukraine, is reaching the end of its service life. Its replacement is critical, but the Sarmat’s repeated failures are pushing that timeline further into the future. This delay is particularly concerning given the uncertainty surrounding the maintenance of the aging R-36M2 fleet, which previously relied on Ukrainian expertise until 2014.
“If this is indeed another Sarmat failure, it would be highly detrimental to the medium-term future of Russian deterrence,” Marcuz warned.
Further bolstering these concerns, a UN researcher who also maintains the Russian Nuclear Forces blog site, agrees with Marcuz’s assessment. With the R-36M2 nearing retirement, “it is extremely unlikely that the Rocket Forces would want to test launch them,” the researcher wrote, adding that “this leaves Sarmat.”
The failures raise broader questions about the readiness of Russia’s nuclear arsenal. A failed test of the R-36M2 would indicate issues with hardware decay and obsolescence, but a Sarmat failure is more damaging, representing the latest in a series of setbacks that have stalled its deployment since 2018. The situation adds fresh uncertainty to Russia’s ability to maintain a credible nuclear deterrent.
[Image of Vladimir Putin chairing a Security Council meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow on November 5, 2025. Credit: Gavriil Grigorov/Pool/AFP via Getty Images]
The repeated setbacks with the Sarmat program underscore the challenges Russia faces in modernizing its military capabilities amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions. The future of Russia’s nuclear deterrence now hinges on its ability to overcome these technical hurdles and deliver a reliable replacement for its aging ICBM fleet.
