Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to make his first foreign trip since an arrest warrant was issued against him by the International Criminal Court (ICC). According to Bloomberg, Putin will be attending the Belt and Road Forum in China in October.
The ICC issued the arrest warrant in March, accusing Putin of war crimes related to the alleged abduction and illegal deportation of children from Ukraine. This has caused panic within the Kremlin, with concerns over the stability of Putin’s rule and whether the warrant is an attempt to call for regime change.
To avoid potential enforcement of the arrest warrant, Putin has been keeping a lower profile and avoiding travel to countries where he could be arrested. He did not attend the BRICS summit in South Africa last week, with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov representing Russia instead. This move was seen as an attempt to avoid international scandal over the arrest warrant.
Putin has also canceled his plans to attend the G20 summit in India next month, citing a busy schedule. This reluctance to travel internationally suggests the impact of the ICC arrest warrant on Putin’s mobility.
China, despite being caught off guard by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, has refused to condemn Russia’s actions and has continued to support Russia by spreading disinformation about the war. President Xi Jinping visited Russia in March, praising Putin for his leadership, and China has positioned itself as a constructive partner in the conflict.
The upcoming visit to China by Putin comes after Xi’s visit to Russia, during which a proposed peace plan for Ukraine was discussed. This plan, leaning pro-Russia, was shared by China while claiming an “impartial position” on the war.
However, recent events have brought some uncertainty to both countries. Putin faced a staged revolt by Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the boss of the Wagner group, which posed a significant challenge to his hold on power. Prigozhin’s presumed death in a mysterious plane crash adds further intrigue to the situation.
Similarly, China has experienced turmoil among senior officials, with the foreign minister, Qin Gang, going missing and subsequently being ousted. This was followed by the replacement of the head of China’s rocket force unit, raising questions about Xi’s control over his regime.
The meeting between Putin and Xi takes place as Russia prepares to take chairmanship of the BRICS group in January. The group, consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, is considering adding new members to increase its political and economic influence. Russia’s push for changing the group’s membership is seen as an attempt to counter its isolation on the international stage due to its actions in Ukraine.
For China, these changes present an opportunity to regain support and unity among its allies, which had been strained by its “no-limits partnership” with Russia during the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.