Riyadh is urging the United States to escalate its military campaign against Iran, according to a Saudi intelligence source, as the kingdom weighs its own potential direct involvement in the escalating conflict. The push comes amid a broader reassessment of regional security alliances and a perceived opportunity to reshape the Middle East, fueled by a complex interplay of long-standing rivalries and shifting geopolitical calculations.
The Saudi government, led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, reportedly believes a decisive weakening of Iran is now within reach, a sentiment echoed in recent conversations with former President Donald Trump. A report in the Recent York Times detailed these discussions, stating the Crown Prince views the current US-Israeli military action as a “historic opportunity” to fundamentally alter the regional balance of power. Trump himself publicly acknowledged the communication, calling the Crown Prince “a warrior” and stating he is “fighting with us.”
While Saudi Arabia has not yet engaged in direct military action, the intelligence source confirmed Riyadh is not simply seeking a continuation of the current strikes, but rather a significant intensification. This stance represents a notable shift in the kingdom’s approach, particularly considering its recent efforts toward de-escalation with Iran, including a China-brokered agreement to restore diplomatic ties in March 2023. Though, those efforts appear to have been overshadowed by Iran’s response to the US-Israeli attack on February 28th, which included drone strikes targeting Saudi oil infrastructure, most recently an attack on a refinery in Yanbu on the Red Sea coast.
A History of Hostility and Shifting Alliances
The long-standing rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran, rooted in sectarian differences and competing claims to regional leadership, has played out through proxy conflicts and diplomatic maneuvering for decades. A leaked 2008 US State Department cable revealed that then-King Abdullah urged the US military to “cut off the head of the snake,” a clear reference to the Iranian theocratic regime, demonstrating the depth of Saudi concerns about Iran’s influence.
Despite this history, Saudi Arabia under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman initially pursued a path of dialogue with Iran, seeking to contain tensions and avoid direct confrontation. However, attacks on Saudi oil facilities in 2019, which Riyadh blamed on Iran, strained those efforts. The current situation appears to have prompted a reassessment, with the kingdom now seemingly prioritizing a more assertive approach.
The Red Sea as a Critical Vulnerability
Saudi Arabia’s ability to export oil via pipeline to the Red Sea provides a strategic advantage, shielding it from the type of blockade Iran has threatened against its neighbors in the Persian Gulf. The recent drone strike on the Yanbu refinery, however, signaled a clear warning from Tehran that even this critical infrastructure is vulnerable. This threat is amplified by the potential for Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen to join the conflict, utilizing their missile arsenal to target Saudi assets.
Pakistan’s Mediation Efforts and the Threshold for Saudi Intervention
Currently, Saudi Arabia is maintaining a position of cautious neutrality, but that could quickly change. Mohammed Alhamed, a Saudi geopolitical analyst, stated that Riyadh is “calibrating its response and preparing for a scenario where escalation, if it happens, will be deliberate and decisive.” He added that the kingdom is not actively seeking war, but is keeping all options on the table.
The success of ongoing peace efforts led by Pakistan will be a key factor in determining Saudi Arabia’s next move. According to Alhamed, if Iran rejects these conditions and continues its attacks, “the threshold for Saudi action will be crossed.” Hesham Alghannam, a Saudi defense expert, echoed this sentiment, stating that a strike by the Houthis on Saudi assets could prompt Riyadh to shift towards defensive coalition support or limited retaliation, as reported by Agence France-Presse.
UAE Calls for Decisive Action, Saudi Arabia Weighs Risks
The United Arab Emirates has taken a more hawkish stance, with its ambassador to Washington, Yousef Al Otaiba, writing in the Wall Street Journal that “a simple ceasefire isn’t enough” and calling for a “conclusive outcome that addresses Iran’s full range of threats.” Saudi Arabia, while not issuing similar overt calls for escalation, faces a complex calculation. Direct military involvement carries the risk of provoking a more severe Iranian response, potentially targeting its Red Sea oil pipeline, possibly in coordination with the Houthis.
Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, suggests that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman may be reassessing Saudi Arabia’s reliance on the United States for its security. “MBS has lost the bet on all his investments over the last several years,” she said, referring to the financial support provided to the Trump administration. “He financially invested in Trump and Trump’s family and his corporation and his White House, but at the end of the day the views of the Saudis and of the whole Gulf have been sidelined by the wishes of Benjamin Netanyahu.”
As the conflict continues, Saudi Arabia finds itself at a critical juncture, balancing its long-standing rivalry with Iran, its strategic interests in regional stability, and its evolving relationship with the United States. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether Riyadh chooses to remain on the sidelines or actively intervene in the escalating conflict. The next key development will likely be the outcome of Pakistan’s mediation efforts and Iran’s response to ongoing military pressure.
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