Saudi oil exports jumped 37 percent since the beginning of the fourth quarter.
Saudi Exports Use Alternative Routes
Total crude and product shipments averaged higher between the start of the fourth quarter and November 11, up from earlier levels in the third quarter, according to data from Vortexa.
Saudi officials used the East-West pipeline to move crude from fields in the Eastern Province to Yanbu on the Red Sea, bypassing shipping lanes affected by the conflict near Iran, Asharq Bloomberg reported. The production recovery accompanied a strong rebound in export channels.
BREAKING: Saudi Arabia tells OPEC it boosted oil production in October to pre-war levels, reaching 10.6 million barrels a day. (Riyadh added that part of the output surge went straight into storage. Saudi Arabia official OPEC production quota is ~10.5m b/d).
Analysts Forecast Deficit Figures
Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, estimated that higher oil prices would raise royalty payments from Saudi Aramco and narrow the government’s budget deficit to 5.2 percent of gross domestic product for the year. “A strong jump in oil revenues,” said Monica Malik, chief, pointing to “driven by higher prices and an additional increase in production,” as cited by Al-Borsa newspaper.
In contrast, former International Monetary Fund mission chief Tim Callen offered a cautious outlook on government accounts in a note published on November 3. “Government spending typically rises strongly near the end of the year, and the budget deficit often peaks in the fourth quarter,” Callen said, according to Al-Borsa newspaper.
“Unless this seasonal pattern differs this year, the 2026 budget deficit could approach 300 billion riyals,” Callen added, putting the projected shortfall near 6 percent of GDP, as reported by Al-Borsa newspaper.
Putting the surge in Saudi oil production into context. Because, yes, Oct 2026 is *technically* the highest since Feb 2026. But only because Riyadh surged output just before the war. Take that one-month blip away, and the Oct figure is the highest in 4 years (and it's among the… pic.twitter.com/hRuFsUob4C