A powerful cold front is rushing southward across Texas, bringing the threat of severe thunderstorms to South and Central Texas tonight. The National Weather Service has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for a broad swath of the region, including the entire San Antonio metro area and several key cities along the I-35 corridor, effective until midnight Sunday.
The timing of the front is particularly disruptive, coinciding with Mother’s Day celebrations. While much of the day remained dry—albeit oppressive with heat index values reaching 97 degrees—the atmospheric stability is expected to collapse as the front interacts with the region’s high humidity. Forecasters warn that the transition from a hot Sunday afternoon to a volatile Sunday night will be abrupt.
Residents from Austin to San Antonio should prepare for a rapid arrival of weather hazards. The primary concerns are damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail, with some gusts potentially reaching 75 mph. While the Storm Prediction Center has flagged a low risk for tornadoes, the overall potential for severe weather remains significant, particularly for those in the Texas Hill Country and the urban centers of the I-35 corridor.
For those currently in the watch area, the National Weather Service advises monitoring local radar and maintaining a way to receive emergency alerts, as these storm cells can intensify quickly over short distances.
Timeline of the Cold Front’s Arrival
The progression of the cold front is moving with considerable speed. The system began its push through the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex and the Interstate 20 corridor on Sunday afternoon, serving as the catalyst for storms that are now tracking south.
The northern Hill Country is the first line of impact, with strong to severe thunderstorms expected to move in by 7 p.m. From there, the line is projected to sweep across the I-35 corridor—affecting Austin, San Marcos, and New Braunfels—between 9 p.m. And 10 p.m. The San Antonio metro area can expect the bulk of the activity to arrive between 9 p.m. Sunday and 1 a.m. Monday.
To help residents plan their evening, the following timeline outlines the expected window of impact for key regions:
| Region | Expected Arrival | Primary Threat Level |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas/Fort Worth | Sunday Afternoon (4 p.m.) | Level 3 Risk (High) |
| Northern Hill Country | Sunday Evening (7 p.m.) | Level 3 Risk (High) |
| I-35 Corridor (Austin/San Marcos) | Sunday Night (9 p.m. – 10 p.m.) | Level 2 Risk (Moderate) |
| San Antonio Metro | Sunday Night – Monday Morning | Level 2 Risk (Moderate) |
Analyzing the Risks: Wind, Hail, and Flooding
The severity of this weather event is driven by the clash between the incoming cold air and the stagnant, humid air mass currently sitting over South Texas. This interaction creates a volatile environment where updrafts can sustain large hail and generate powerful downdrafts.
The Storm Prediction Center has categorized the risk levels for the region, with San Antonio sitting at a Level 2 of 5. While this is a moderate risk, the potential for 75 mph wind gusts is a serious concern for unsecured outdoor furniture, signage, and older tree limbs. To the north, the risk is escalated to Level 3 for cities like Waco, San Angelo, and Dallas, where the atmospheric conditions are even more conducive to severe cell development.
Rainfall is expected to be concentrated but intense. San Antonio has an overall 70% chance of precipitation. While the storm system is expected to move through quickly—likely clearing the region by 2 a.m. Monday—the intensity of the rain could lead to localized issues. A quick inch of rain falling in a short window often overwhelms urban drainage systems, leading to isolated street flooding in low-lying areas.
A Shift in the Weekly Outlook
Once the front clears the region early Monday morning, the immediate threat of severe weather will dissipate, leaving behind a more temperate environment. The cold front will provide a modest reprieve from the extreme heat seen on Sunday, though it will not bring a dramatic plunge in temperature.
Monday morning lows are expected to dip into the upper 60s, with afternoon highs reaching the low to mid-80s. This pattern will persist into Tuesday, characterized by partly sunny skies and gusty north winds ranging from 10 to 20 mph. The humidity, which peaked on Sunday, will drop significantly, making the mid-80s feel considerably more comfortable.
However, this cooling trend is temporary. High pressure is expected to build during the second half of the week, nudging temperatures back upward. San Antonio highs are forecasted to climb to 88 degrees on Wednesday and reach 90 degrees by Thursday and Friday, with the heat continuing into the following weekend.
Meteorologists note that the forecast for the remainder of the week is unusually dry for mid-May. Typically, this period is one of the most active times for storm development in Texas. Current long-range models suggest a significant rain chance will not return to the region until the May 17-19 timeframe, making tonight’s cold front the primary weather event for the next several days.
For real-time updates and official warnings, residents are encouraged to follow the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio office.
The next critical checkpoint for the region will be the early Monday morning assessment of any storm damage and the confirmation of the temperature shift as the front exits the South Texas coast.
Do you have photos of the storms or updates on conditions in your neighborhood? Share them in the comments or send them to our newsroom.
