Oil prices climbed on Wednesday as renewed fears over Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia overshadowed signs of recovering Middle East oil flows, with Brent crude hitting $101.51 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rising to $90.25, according to reports. The surge reflected persistent geopolitical risks, even as regional exporters reported partial recovery in output and transportation.
Supply Resilience Amid Regional Disruptions
Shell Plc CEO Wael Sawan highlighted that Middle East oil flows have rebounded to about 80% of pre-war levels, citing the region’s resilience in fulfilling global supply commitments. Despite everything happening, we’re now close to 80-plus percent of prewar levels, showing the resilience of many of these nations to continue to honor their commitments to supply the world,
Sawan said at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London on Tuesday, as reported by Bloomberg.
Saudi Arabia, the region’s largest producer, has managed to maintain critical oil exports despite ongoing Houthi attacks. The East-West Pipeline, which carries crude from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea, reached 5.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in late September, according to Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, as noted by CNBC. This capacity has helped offset disruptions caused by Houthi strikes on the Red Sea route.
Houthi Missile Strikes Disrupt Saudi Oil Infrastructure
Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis have intensified attacks on Saudi infrastructure, including a missile strike on the East-West Pipeline on September 10 that temporarily halted crude loadings at Yanbu. While operations have since resumed, flows remain below pre-attack levels, according to The National. Additionally, Saudi airports in Jazan and Najran were targeted in two attacks, further heightening concerns about regional stability.
These incidents have compounded challenges for oil exports. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy trade, rose to 2.58 million bpd in September, driven by Saudi Arabia’s shift from the Red Sea to the strait. However, combined flows through Hormuz, the Bab Al Mandeb strait, and the Suez Canal fell to 9.99 million bpd in September, a 61% drop from February levels, according to The National.
Storms and Tanker Attacks Threaten Oil Production
Analysts warned that geopolitical tensions and natural disruptions could further strain markets. A storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico threatened U.S. oil infrastructure, with forecasts suggesting it could impact 15% of U.S. crude production and six refineries, as reported by UA.NEWS. Meanwhile, Houthi attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have increased, with the UK Maritime Trade Operations recording nine incidents this month, per Mitrade.
Despite these challenges, Saudi Arabia’s efforts to stabilize flows have provided some relief. Vitol, a major energy trader, reported that Middle Eastern tankers shipped about 12 million bpd of crude and 2 million bpd of petroleum products in the past week, according to UA.NEWS. However, analysts caution that rising supply is being offset by stronger demand and ongoing disruptions, leaving global oil balances tighter than data suggests.
Houthi Targeting of Facilities Keeps Supply Risks High
The sustained ability of the Houthis in Yemen to target oil facilities hundreds of kilometers from the border keeps the risks of a renewed large-scale crude supply disruption present and high,
said Samer Hasn of XS.com, as cited by CNBC. This volatility has kept prices elevated, even as Saudi Arabia and other exporters work to restore normalcy.
The interplay between supply recovery and geopolitical risks highlights the fragility of global energy markets. While regional producers have shown resilience, the threat of further disruptions—whether from Houthi attacks or environmental events—continues to weigh on investor sentiment.