Hezbollah-Amal Alliance Faces First Public Rift Over Lebanon-Israel Ceasefire Monitoring
Lebanon’s fragile political landscape is further intricate by a newly public dispute between Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, traditionally known as the “Shiite duo,” over the appointment of a civilian to lead the Lebanese delegation to the ceasefire monitoring committee with Israel. The disagreement, sparked by Hezbollah’s rejection of former ambassador Simon Karam’s selection, underscores growing tensions within the alliance and raises questions about it’s future cohesion.
The recent criticism from Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s Deputy secretary-General, of a decision coordinated with Parliament speaker Nabih Berri, leader of the amal Movement, marks an unusual level of public discord. Qassem characterized Karam’s appointment as an “additional omission” following what he deemed a “sin” – the government’s August 5th move to regulate the party’s weapons.
This open friction has brought internal discrepancies to the forefront, revealing the extent of the divide between the two leaderships at a critical juncture. “The contrast between Qasim and Berri reveals the depth of the crisis facing the Shiite duo and the extent of the pressure that may end the role-distribution game between them,” noted a senior political analyst. The analyst further suggested that increasing risks are placing greater responsibility on Berri’s shoulders, while supporters of both parties harbor resentment towards the other.
Despite agreeing to Karam’s appointment, Berri reportedly attempted to create ambiguity by suggesting he wasn’t consulted, a claim contradicted by official statements from the Lebanese presidencies. According to observers, this maneuver appears to be a calculated attempt to appease both sides, though one analyst dismissed it as “a trick that may not fool even the fans of the duo themselves.”
A retired Brigadier General and strategic expert believes Berri’s approval, despite his reservations, reflects a fundamental disagreement with qassem’s position. While Berri didn’t object to a civilian’s participation, he reportedly felt compelled to accept the appointment to avoid a direct confrontation with the Lebanese presidency and international pressure. The analyst recalled that their relationship wasn’t built on a shared political project, but rather on converging interests between Iran and Syria in the 1990s, which ended the “war of brothers.”
Observers note that Berri’s influence has gradually waned as his policies became increasingly aligned with Hezbollah, notably after the party’s regional power grew following the 2006 war and its involvement in Syria. This shift led many Lebanese to view Berri as a “political attaché” to the party. Though,Berri regained prominence after the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah,when he was tasked by Qassem with leading ceasefire efforts.
“Berry knows very well that adhering to the party’s policy will lead the Lebanese, especially the Shiite component, to the abyss,” the analyst stated.
Following Karam’s appointment, Lebanon and Israel held a direct meeting within the ceasefire monitoring committee, a step deemed necessary by the Lebanese presidency to prevent renewed conflict. President Joseph Aoun affirmed that negotiation doesn’t equate to relinquishing sovereignty,while Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz warned of forceful action if Hezbollah doesn’t disarm by year’s end.
The analyst considers Karam’s assignment “beyond the technical framework,” emphasizing his reputation as a staunch sovereignist and dismissing Qassem’s statements as “political gossip” intended to appease Hezbollah’s base without impacting events.
Another expert pointed to “increased American flexibility” following Karam’s appointment, noting that a US envoy who previously labeled Lebanon a “failed state” softened his tone after the Lebanese army’s announcement of arms control operations in the south. The Lebanese government has set a deadline for completing arms inventory south of the Litani, a move Hezbollah rejects regarding its weapons north of the river.
Ultimately, the expert believes Qasim’s positions won’t alter the current political or security landscape, as international parties are increasingly focused on absorbing or preventing the use of Hezbollah’s weapons, rather than eliminating them entirely.
