The Middle East and North Africa, which already include some of the hottest and driest places on Earth, will reach warming thresholds two or three decades ahead of the rest of the world.
By 2100, some parts of the Arabian Peninsula may do so experience up to 9 degrees Celsius of heating.
The region, which already has record summer temperatures, is currently close to exceed 2 degrees Celsius of warming on average compared to pre-industrial temperatures. Further warming in the region could make some areas uninhabitable without adaptation measures.
“When we talk about the Paris Agreement, we say that we should try to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and that we should not exceed two degrees Celsius,” he said. in a statement Abdul Malik, climate scientist at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology and lead author of the study. “But in some parts of the Middle East and North Africa, warming has already exceeded 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius.”
The research was published in JGR: Atmospheres.
In this study, the researchers used CMIP5 and CMIP6 models to analyze the Middle East and North Africa at high spatial resolution (81 square kilometers or about 50 square miles) and understand warming in the region in more detail.
“Although previous studies have shown that the region is warming much faster than other areas, we have shown that the rate of warming is not constant across the region,” Malik said. ““And this rate of warming could vary between 1.5 and 3.5 times faster than the global average.”
The rapid pace of warming means the Middle East and North Africa could reach 3 and 4 degrees Celsius nearly three decades earlier than most of the world. This warming will be particularly rapid in the interior areas of the Arabian Peninsula.
The Middle East and North Africa comprise some of the hottest regions on the planet, and researchers predict that warming will continue to be dramatic. The study found that the central Arabian Peninsula is already warming up to three times faster than the rest of the world. This pace is similar to warming in the Arctic.
By 2100, the Arabian Peninsula could warm by an average of 2.6 degrees Celsius under low-emissions scenarios, and 7.6 degrees Celsius in high emissions scenarios.
This is because the arid deserts of the Middle East and North Africa cannot be easily cooled through the evaporation of soil moisture, unlike their humid equatorial counterparts in other parts of the world.
“Desert regions warm almost as quickly as polar regions and have much higher temperatures,” said Georgiy Stenchikov, a retired climatologist and one of the study’s co-authors. “Therefore, “The temperature threshold is reached much faster than in the polar regions.”
Due to coastal cooling, densely populated areas along the southern and western coasts of the Arabian Peninsula, including Oman, are currently not warming as rapidly as inland areas and the eastern coast of the peninsula.
Warming rates are not constant across seasons. Researchers have discovered summer hot spots in the central Arabian Peninsula, including the populous province of Riyadh and Algeria, and winter hotspots in Mauritania and the Elburz Mountains of Iran.
If the world met low-emissions targets, the rate of warming in the Middle East and North Africa could be reduced by up to 38%. Even individual cities they may be trying to adapt to the extreme heat through architectural and urban green solutions.
“Adaptation will be needed, and these adaptation measures could be tested and developed in the Middle East and North Africa,” Stenchikov said. “Global warming is a global problem, so it cannot be prevented in one place, but it is possible to develop artificial environments in regions with large populations.”
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Interview Between Time.news Editor and Climate Expert Abdul Malik
Editor: Good morning, and thank you for joining us today, Abdul. Your recent research on climate change in the Middle East and North Africa has certainly raised alarms. Can you start by summarizing the key findings of your study?
Abdul Malik: Good morning! Yes, our study found that the Middle East and North Africa are experiencing a rate of warming that could be two to three decades ahead of the global average. By 2100, some areas, particularly the Arabian Peninsula, could see temperature increases of up to 9 degrees Celsius. This is significant considering many regions are already grappling with extreme heat.
Editor: That’s staggering. You’ve mentioned that some parts of the region already exceed the 2 degrees Celsius warming mark compared to pre-industrial levels. How does this compare to the targets set in the Paris Agreement?
Abdul Malik: The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, ideally to 1.5 degrees. However, in parts of the Middle East and North Africa, we’re seeing temperatures rise past both thresholds. This is not just about statistics; it has real implications for habitability and livelihoods in the region.
Editor: What do you mean by “uninhabitable without adaptation measures”? Can you elaborate on those adaptation measures?
Abdul Malik: Certainly. As temperatures rise, certain areas may become too hot for sustained human life. Adaptation measures might include developing more resilient infrastructure, enhancing water management systems, investing in renewable energy, and improving agricultural practices. In essence, we need to find ways to make these extreme environments more bearable for human habitation.
Editor: Your study also indicates that the rate of warming isn’t uniform across the region. Can you explain why that’s significant?
Abdul Malik: Yes! Our research used advanced climate models with high spatial resolution, revealing that some areas in the Arabian Peninsula are warming at a rate 1.5 to 3.5 times faster than the global average. This means localized efforts are necessary because the impact is not the same everywhere, and understanding these nuances helps in tailoring our responses.
Editor: It’s interesting that you draw a parallel with warming in the Arctic. What does that tell us about the implications of climate change?
Abdul Malik: The Arctic is often seen as a bellwether for climate change, with its rapid changes impacting global weather patterns. The fact that we observe similar acceleration in warming in the central Arabian Peninsula indicates that vulnerable regions can face drastic changes. It serves as a reminder that climate change is a global issue, and what happens in one location can have far-reaching effects.
Editor: Looking ahead, what could be done on a policy level to address this urgent situation?
Abdul Malik: Policymakers need to prioritize climate resilience strategies specifically focused on vulnerable regions like the Middle East and North Africa. This could include international cooperation on climate financing, sharing technology for renewable energy, and implementing stricter emissions regulations. Collaboration among countries in the region is crucial to bolster adaptation efforts.
Editor: what message would you like to impart to our readers regarding climate change and its impacts on their lives?
Abdul Malik: Climate change is more than an environmental issue; it is a humanitarian one that affects food security, water availability, and overall human health. Even those who feel insulated from these changes should understand that we are all interconnected. The time for action is now—every bit of effort counts, whether that’s reducing personal carbon footprints or advocating for systemic change.
Editor: Thank you for your insights, Abdul. It’s clear that the challenges are immense, but so is the power of informed action. We appreciate your work and look forward to your continued contributions to this critical field.
Abdul Malik: Thank you for having me! It’s crucial we keep these conversations going as we navigate the road ahead.
