2023-10-28 11:25:32
Summer is over, tomorrow the clocks will go back. There are already prints and speculoos on the supermarket shelves and some investors are looking forward to the Christmas rally. But will she come? Shareholders were already waiting for them last year – in vain. The German stock market barometer closed at just under 14,000 points on the last trading day of 2022 after an annual loss of a whopping 12 percent.
Nevertheless: hope dies last, especially among private investors. This is what a survey by Goldberg revealed. Fear of geopolitical risks or rising bond yields? None! Although some private investors suffered book losses of more than 1,000 DAX points. There is no willingness to realize this – also because there is hope for a veritable rally at Christmas time. Goldberg sums up: “In the end, the optimism of investors is surprisingly high – judging by the development of the Dax over the past few weeks. There is practically no sign of great fear or even panic in our survey.”
A lightweight sets the tone
But Thursday of this week impressively showed that it is not just geopolitical risks, such as the Russian attack on Ukraine or the recent Hamas terrorist attack on Israel, that cause the Dax to falter. A single stock, Siemens Energy, a lightweight among the 40 stocks in the German Bundesliga, determined the direction of the day. After a price slide of more than a third – the second of this magnitude this year – the Dax also collapsed because the significantly higher-weighted parent company Siemens also fell sharply in the wake. If economic data hadn’t erased some of the losses, the DAX’s daily loss could easily have amounted to 1.5 percent.
Of course, these are home-made problems at Siemens Energy – namely the Gamesa business in Spain. However, capital-intensive companies, such as those in the chemical industry, energy supply or aviation, where the core business is running smoothly, could also face trouble because the current interest rate level makes refinancing drastically more expensive. Especially when companies have to compete on the bond market with government securities with better credit ratings.
Philipp Krohn Published/Updated: , Recommendations: 6 Archibald Preuschat Published/Updated: , Recommendations: 11 Hanno Mußler Published/Updated: , Recommendations: 12
Yes, German stocks are currently cheap. But taking bold action now could prove to be an expensive mistake.
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