Appointed Republican incumbent Darline Graham and Democratic challenger Annie Andrews are locked in a dead heat at 48% ahead of the November 3 election, transforming deeply conservative South Carolina into an unexpected battleground for control of the U.S. Senate.
How a Deep-Red Senate Seat Became a Toss-Up
South Carolina has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998, and Donald Trump carried the state by nearly 18 points during the 2024 presidential election. Yet a New York Times/Siena poll released this week shows the state’s Senate contest tied at 48% each for the major-party candidates.
I am honored that President Donald J. Trump is returning to South Carolina TOMORROW in Rock Hill to rally support for our campaign against radical liberal Annie Andrews.We need loyal supporters like you to join us. Can we count on you to be there?RSVP HERE:… pic.twitter.com/ZHqto1IDbO
— https://x.com/DarlineGrahamSC/status/2115438843599950153
The race shifted rapidly following the sudden death of longtime incumbent Sen. Lindsey Graham in July. Darline Graham was appointed to fill the seat after her brother died, and she entered the race at Trump’s urging, bringing a political newcomer into a high-stakes legislative defense. The appointee entered the race without prior elected experience, a vulnerability that surfaced during an August debate when she admitted she was not that informed on national security
when questioned about U.S. policy toward Taiwan.
In response to the tightening numbers, Fox News updated its forecast to move South Carolina from Lean R to Toss-up. President Donald Trump traveled to the state for a 90-minute rally in the Upstate region to support the Republican nominee and is scheduled to return for his second rally in eight days.
Challenger Annie Andrews, a Charleston pediatrician, has shaped her campaign around medical issues and local economic pressures.
I’ve been hearing from South Carolinians who are struggling with the high cost of everything.
Annie Andrews, U.S. Senate candidate
Early voting data indicates momentum for the challenger. A modeling analysis of early ballots through October 22 showed Andrews leading among early voters by roughly 8%, hitting the threshold needed to offset traditional Republican advantages on Election Day.
6 years ago, statistical dead heat polls from Quinnipiac and CBS made Dems believe they could beat Lindsey Graham in SC-SEN. But the final NYT poll was Graham +6 and he won by 10.Now it’s NYT showing a tie. https://t.co/rUFT3Gpuj1
— https://x.com/billscher/status/2115404568121237670
Andrews has accused her opponent of being part of the Washington establishment, pointing to campaign finance records. A review of those filings showed the Republican nominee raised roughly $1.16 million in individual contributions.
Other recent surveys have shown similarly narrow margins. A South Carolina Policy Council survey conducted during the month gave the incumbent a single-point advantage, which fell within the survey’s margin of error. An InsiderAdvantage poll also captured a tight contest with Graham at 46 percent and Andrews at 45 percent, alongside Libertarian candidate Kasie Whitener at 2 percent and Constitution Party nominee Mark Hackett at 3 percent, with 4 percent undecided.
Campaign Spending Rises as Republican Establishment Divides
National campaign investments have flooded the state despite its traditional party lean. AdImpact reported that Andrews and her allies had spent or booked about $30 million on political advertising, while Republican forces deployed approximately $21 million.
The Republican establishment remains divided. Representative Ralph Norman, who lost the runoff election to Graham, announced he would not campaign for her. Norman told reporters that voters are not buying the argument that everyone has to ‘settle’ for a candidate that has been propped up by special interest groups
and a presidential endorsement.
#SCSen general election aired ad spending:🔵$24.0M 🔴$16.4MFuture reservations:🔵$6.3M 🔴$4.6M https://t.co/0ldP9BSmVz
— https://x.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/2115440403659063775
Meanwhile, political observers note parallels to the expensive 2020 Senate race featuring Jaime Harrison, though pollsters emphasize that this year’s numbers show a tighter contest in the final week.
Voter Demographics and the Final Week of Campaigning
The New York Times/Siena survey illustrates deep demographic divides across South Carolina. Black voters support Andrews 93% to 4%, while white voters favor Graham 62% to 35%.
- Men prefer Graham 55% to Andrews’s 40%.
- Women back Andrews 54% to Graham’s 43%.
- Trump 2024 voters break 89% for Graham, with 8% supporting Andrews.
As national forecasters watch to see whether a close contest in South Carolina signals broader shifts in the U.S. Senate, both campaigns enter the final weekend before Election Day on November 3 with heavy surrogate visits and advertising blitzes.