With the election less than two weeks away, a statewide University of North Florida poll shows Republican Byron Donalds holding a narrow 49% to 47% lead over Democrat David Jolly in Florida’s tightening race for governor.
Surveying 1,471 likely Florida midterm voters between Oct. 12 and Oct. 19, researchers found that the two-point gap falls squarely within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 2.81 percentage points, leaving the race effectively dead even as early voting continues across the state. The latest numbers from the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab indicate that the gubernatorial contest has narrowed since July, when Republican U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds held a five-percentage-point advantage over his Democratic challenger, former congressman David Jolly.
Donalds Commands Financial Edge
Campaign finance records show that Donalds had raised $134.4 million and spent $91.7 million through his campaign account and political committee combined as of Sept. 25, according to CBS News. Jolly, by comparison, has raised $16.7 million and spent $11.2 million over the same period.
Donalds deployed that financial backing into a fresh wave of television advertisements highlighting endorsements from Gov. Ron DeSantis and President Donald Trump, while also targeting Jolly on affordability and tax issues. In response, Jolly fired back with his own ads refuting claims that he would raise taxes, support socialism, or promote offshore oil drilling, while accusing his Republican opponent of misleading voters.
The Naples Republican told The National News Desk that his platform relies on common sense conservative principles that have made Florida the number one state in all America.
His campaign strategist Ryan Smith noted that Donalds’ recent advertisements highlight his support for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which temporarily cut taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security.
Demographics Shape Voter Choice
The UNF survey revealed notable crossover support: 11% of registered Republicans reported backing Jolly, while 5% of registered Democrats support Donalds. Among independent and third-party voters, Jolly leads Donalds by 16 points. Dr. Sean Freeder, PORL faculty director, pointed to national political headwinds as a primary driver of the race’s narrowing margin, noting that midterm elections characteristically create difficulties for the party holding the White House.
The UNF poll also revealed that Ashley Moody holds a four-point advantage over Democrat Angie Nixon in the U.S. Senate special election, leading 49% to 45% with 5% of voters undecided. Meanwhile, Donalds maintains an edge in voter enthusiasm—with 77% of his supporters describing their backing as strong, compared to 67% for Jolly.
Voters React on Campaign Trail
Evan Richland, speaking at an open-air cafe in Sarasota, told WUSF that he had never heard of Byron Donalds before that day, while other attendees like Allan Weinstein expressed optimism about the state’s economic direction. Additional supporters at the Yoders Restaurant stop voiced a desire for the nominee to follow in the footsteps of Governor Ron DeSantis.
because that’s the way we win.
Byron Donalds, Republican nominee for governor
With Florida boasting roughly 5.7 million registered Republicans and 4.1 million registered Democrats, researchers emphasize that final turnout will dictate the outcome when voters cast their ballots on Nov. 3.