Spot prices in southern Sweden surged to an average of 4,3 kronor per kilowatt-hour on Monday, November 9, 2026, driven by a combination of sub-freezing temperatures and dead calm weather.
The spike in elområde 4 pushed hourly rates past 7 kronor per kilowatt-hour between 5 p.m. and 6 p.m., excluding taxes and grid fees. Nibe energy economist Claes Hemberg told Aftonbladet that the region is experiencing a rare convergence of factors.
We have had between 2 and 3 kronor the latest time. And now it is windless at the same time as the cold has arrived, so it is a combination between bad luck and gas prices at high levels.
Claes Hemberg, energy economist at Nibe
Southern Prices Rise While Northern Costs Fall
The price shock hit southern regions hardest while northern areas remained largely insulated. According to weekly data from Energimarknadsinspektionen, spot prices in SE4 rose 66,2 percent during week 44, reaching a weekly average of 200,5 euros per megawatt-hour. Meanwhile, prices in SE1 in northern Sweden fell to 20,3 euros per megawatt-hour, creating a tenfold difference across the country.
Continental market pressures are magnifying the crisis in the south. European natural gas storage levels sit near 60 percent capacity, well below the historical 2017–2021 average of 89,4 percent, according to data cited by Jordbruksaktuellt from the German publication NDR. Because SE4 shares close transmission ties with the continent, the resulting high gas prices dictate local marginal pricing.
On the broader European gas market, the price on the Dutch TTF trading hub increased by 12,4 percent to a weekly average of 100,5 euros per megawatt-hour. While Swedish gas storage fill levels increased by 3,6 percent to 90,5 percent, the wider European storage level rose marginally to 74,8 percent. On the financial power market, the front-month Nordic electricity future rose by 23,4 euros per megawatt-hour to a weekly average of 136 euros per megawatt-hour.
Area-specific EPAD contracts also widened the gap, with SE4 seeing an increase of 11,9 euros per megawatt-hour to 45,5 euros per megawatt-hour, while SE1 and SE2 dropped to −76,7 and −77,6 euros per megawatt-hour respectively. On the balancing market, SE4 experienced extreme price variation, with the highest imbalance price reaching 5 574,4 euros per megawatt-hour.
Analysing the underlying infrastructural challenges, Mats Nilsson, associate professor in economics who researches energy market functionality, noted that Svenska kraftnät bears responsibility for the fall in transmission capacity to SE4 over the year.
Physical measurement data from Svenska kraftnät showed that southbound flows reached 5 853 megawatts on January 15, while the peak flow during October up to the 29th reached only 3 302 megawatts. With SE4 consumption constant at 2,500 megawatts per hour, the price differential between SE3 and SE4 caused high costs from January through October 29.
Nuclear Outages Limit Domestic Production
Domestic supply constraints have exacerbated the price volatility. Three of Sweden’s six nuclear reactors—Ringhals 3, Ringhals 4, and Forsmark 1—stood idle during November, removing roughly 3 300 megawatt of production capacity from the grid, according to reports in Nu.
Vattenfall postponed the scheduled restart of Ringhals 3 to November 27, while Svenska kraftnät projected Ringhals 4 to return on November 20 and Forsmark 1 to resume generation in stages through December 12, with one generator slated for November 17 and the second for December 12. Energy analysts point out that these outages leave the southern grid heavily reliant on imports and expensive marginal power generation during peak demand periods.
Vattenfall sales private customer manager Jonas Stenbeck noted that October highlighted the weather-dependent nature of the market, combining lower nuclear and hydropower output in the Nordics with a German Dunkelflaute phenomenon where dark and windless conditions halt solar and wind generation simultaneously.
Reviewing historical precedents, critics point out that the political decisions behind current vulnerabilities extend back years. In a leader commentary in Nya Kristinhamns-Posten, Per-Ola Olsson noted that the red-green government raised the tax on nuclear power in 2015 despite squeezed profitability, and decided to close four reactors prematurely that same year.
Svenska kraftnät had explicitly warned that the tax increase risked forcing reactor closures and threatening electricity supply, a finding later echoed by an audit from Riksrevisionen in 2023 which concluded that the government failed to conduct adequate impact analyses before proceeding.
Government Compensation Helps Households with High Electricity Costs
The prolonged high price environment has triggered government intervention. Because October’s average spot price in SE4 exceeded 1,50 kronor per kilowatt-hour—landing at 156,7 öre according to Via TT and Vattenfall—the government activated its high-cost protection scheme.
The mechanism compensates households for 90 percent of the cost exceeding 1,50 kronor per kilowatt-hour. However, the initial payout for October generated sharp criticism from consumer advocates and residents, who calculate the reimbursement at roughly 100 kronor for a typical single-family home using direct electric heating.
It is a mockery. They could just as well keep it.
Marlene, resident interviewed by BLT via Omni
Businesses receive no compensation under the high-cost protection rules, raising concerns among commercial operators about margins and operational continuity. E.ON pricing expert Anna Rylander advised homeowners to check window seals, clear obstructions from radiators, and manage indoor temperatures to mitigate heating losses as the winter season advances.
Adding further pressure on enterprise, Mikael Erlandson, regional manager for Företagarna Västra Götaland, and André Nilsson, economic policy expert at Företagarna, warned that high and unpredictable electricity prices risk causing missed investments, lost jobs, and ultimately bankruptcies. They pointed out that Sweden maintains the second-highest electricity tax in the entire European Union, surpassed only by Poland, with taxes and fees making up roughly two-thirds of the electricity bill and taxes alone accounting for over 40 percent.
Furthermore, they noted that large-scale industrial electricity is taxed at just 0,6 öre per kilowatt-hour compared to the standard 36 öre level, while Riksrevisionen found that significant amounts of annual tax reductions go to non-energy-intensive or non-internationally exposed companies. Företagarna urges policymakers to abolish the automatic indexation of the electricity tax in the upcoming state budget.