The Moon is an enduring target, a silent witness to a relentless barrage of cosmic debris. But later this year, our closest neighbor in space is expected to host a different kind of visitor: a piece of human engineering that has outlived its usefulness. According to a new analysis by independent astronomer Bill Gray, the spent upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is on a collision course with the lunar surface.
The projectile—roughly the height of a five-story building—is predicted to strike the Moon on August 5, 2026, at approximately 06:44 UTC. Impacting at seven times the speed of sound, the rocket stage is expected to land near the Einstein crater, a heavily scarred region situated on the threshold between the Moon’s near and far sides.
For the lunar landscape, the event will be a negligible addition to billions of years of cratering. For Earth’s space agencies and the growing community of commercial satellite operators, however, the collision serves as a stark reminder of the increasing volume of “space junk” orbiting our planet and the unpredictable paths these derelict objects can take.
The orbital dance of space debris
The rocket stage in question belongs to the 2025-010D Falcon 9 mission, which carried a payload including the Blue Ghost mission 1 and Hakuto-R Mission 2 landers. While SpaceX is famous for landing its first-stage boosters on drone ships for reuse, the second stages—the upper portions that push payloads into their final orbits—are typically non-reusable. Most of these stages either burn up upon reentry into Earth’s atmosphere or are flung into heliocentric orbits around the Sun.
This particular stage, however, remained “local.” It currently follows a wide, eccentric orbit that takes approximately 26 days to complete. At its closest point to Earth (perigee), it passes within 220,000 kilometers; at its farthest (apogee), it swings out to 510,000 kilometers. Because the Moon orbits at an average distance of 400,000 kilometers, the rocket’s path periodically intersects with the Moon’s gravitational track.
Gray, the developer of the Project Pluto software used to track near-Earth objects, notes that while gravity is the primary driver of this motion, the timing is not perfectly linear. Solar radiation pressure—the physical push exerted by sunlight—acts on the tumbling rocket stage. Because the object is rotating, it reflects light unevenly, adding a layer of unpredictable drift to its trajectory over time.
“The motion of space junk is mostly quite predictable,” Gray explains, noting that the gravitational influence of the Earth, Moon, and Sun is known with immense precision. But on August 5, 2026, the timing will align perfectly, forcing the rocket and the Moon to reach the same point in space simultaneously.
A history of intentional and accidental impacts
While the Falcon 9 collision is an accident of orbital mechanics, humans have a long history of using the Moon as a ballistics target. In the 1970s, NASA intentionally crashed several Apollo modules into the surface to create “moonquakes,” allowing scientists to study the lunar interior. More recently, the LCROSS probe was intentionally slammed into a permanently shadowed crater in 2009, kicking up plumes of dust that confirmed the presence of water ice.
The most recent precedent for the SpaceX impact occurred in 2022, when a booster from China’s Chang’e 5-T1 mission struck the lunar far side, leaving a distinct double-crater formation captured by NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO).
| Event | Year | Nature of Impact | Scientific Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apollo Modules | 1970s | Intentional | Studied lunar seismic activity |
| LCROSS Probe | 2009 | Intentional | Confirmed lunar water ice |
| Chang’e 5-T1 | 2022 | Accidental/Spent Stage | Imaged double-crater formation |
| Falcon 9 (2025-010D) | 2026 | Accidental/Spent Stage | Projected new crater formation |
The growing risk to lunar colonization
There is no immediate danger to human life; the Moon remains uninhabited, save for the legacy of previous missions—including abandoned lunar rovers, discarded equipment, and a slight collection of astronaut waste. However, the broader trend of reckless space-junk disposal is becoming a strategic concern as the world enters a new era of lunar exploration.
NASA’s Artemis IV mission aims to return astronauts to the Moon by 2028, while China is targeting a crewed lunar landing around 2030. As these programs establish long-term lunar bases and permanent infrastructure, the risk of “blind” impacts from spent rocket stages increases. A collision with a crewed habitat or a critical communication array would be catastrophic.
To mitigate this, Gray suggests a more disciplined approach to “end-of-life” disposal for upper stages. Rather than leaving them in orbits that intersect with the Earth-Moon system, agencies could ensure these stages are pushed into orbits that leave the vicinity entirely, orbiting the Sun where they pose no threat to planetary activity for thousands of years.
While the August 2026 impact will likely be invisible from Earth, the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter will likely be tasked with imaging the aftermath, adding one more human-made scar to the face of the Moon.
The next critical checkpoint for this event will be a series of revised trajectory updates from Project Pluto as the rocket stage enters its final orbital approach in early 2026.
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